5-Year Free Cash Flow Projections
| Year | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|
| Revenue | $21.8B | $23.1B | $24.4B | $25.5B | $26.3B |
| EBIT | $5.6B | $5.9B | $6.2B | $6.5B | $6.7B |
| Tax | $1.3B | $1.4B | $1.4B | $1.5B | $1.6B |
| NOPAT | $4.3B | $4.5B | $4.8B | $5.0B | $5.2B |
| + Depreciation | $556M | $588M | $623M | $650M | $670M |
| - Capex | $501M | $530M | $561M | $586M | $603M |
| - Δ NWC | $122M | $124M | $133M | $107M | $76M |
| Free Cash Flow | $4.2B | $4.5B | $4.7B | $5.0B | $5.1B |
| Discount Factor | 0.928 | 0.862 | 0.800 | 0.743 | 0.690 |
| Present Value | $3.9B | $3.8B | $3.8B | $3.7B | $3.5B |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% | 4.00% |
|---|
| 5.72% | $294.39 | $336.62 | $394.39 | $478.19 | $522.92 |
| 6.72% | $229.29 | $253.74 | $284.78 | $325.45 | $381.09 |
| 7.72% | $187.38 | $203.10 | $222.14 | $245.71 | $275.60 |
| 8.72% | $158.29 | $169.11 | $181.82 | $196.97 | $215.32 |
| 9.72% | $137.01 | $144.84 | $153.82 | $164.25 | $176.51 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers
Growth Assumptions
Year 1 Revenue Growth6.02%
Year 2 Revenue Growth5.77%
Year 3 Revenue Growth5.85%
Year 4 Revenue Growth4.43%
Year 5 Revenue Growth3.00%
Terminal Growth Rate3.00%
Margin & Efficiency
EBIT Margin25.54%
Tax Rate23.17%
Capex / Revenue2.30%
NWC / Revenue9.88%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 18x EV/EBITDA (S&P 500: 22x P/E)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.