Autodesk, Inc.ADSKNASDAQ

Overview Intelligence Charts News Fundamentals DCF Key Metrics TTM Financials Earnings Growth Rating Analysts Institutional Peers Historical

DCF Valuation

DCF Valuation Summary

Strong Sell

Fair Value: $155.08 per share(market-calibrated)

-32.5%

Upside to Fair Value

Current

$229.74

Pure Model

$148.55

Fair Value

$155.08

Bull Case

$197.08

Bear Case

$107.35

Market Reality Check

Model Terminal Growth

3.75%

Market-Implied Growth

8.18%

Calibrated Growth

4.86%

Fair value uses 75% model / 25% market-implied terminal growth. Pure model: $148.55.

What's Driving This Ratingfor ADSK

✓

CapEx already efficient

CapEx at 1.11% of revenue is already at or below sector maintenance level. No normalization needed — cash conversion is already strong.

↑

Margin expansion modeled

Current EBIT margin is 18.82% — below the sector mature average of 25.00%. Model expands margins as the business scales and operating leverage kicks in. Year 10 EBIT reaches $2.9B (23.38% margin).

⚠

Analyst growth decelerates sharply

Revenue growth drops from 16.89% in Year 1 to 3.75% by Year 5 (per analyst consensus). This growth deceleration is a key reason the model may undervalue the stock if growth re-accelerates.

↔

Perpetuity and exit methods disagree

Perpetuity growth gives $104.43/share (15.2x terminal FCF) while exit multiple gives $192.68/share (36.6x terminal FCF). The 28x EV/EBITDA exit reflects current market multiples, while the perpetuity method with 3.75% growth is more conservative. The base case averages both methods.

🎯

Market pricing in higher long-term growth

To justify $229.74, the market implies 8.18% perpetual growth — 443bps above the model's 3.75%. This suggests the market sees additional growth catalysts (AI, new products, market expansion) not captured in analyst estimates.

✓

Strong cash flow conversion

Year 10 FCF/EBITDA conversion of 76.47% indicates efficient cash generation. FCF reaches $2.4B by Year 10 (19.73% FCF margin).

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

Cost of Equity (CAPM)

Risk-Free Rate (Rf)4.50%

Beta (β)1.45

Market Risk Premium4.50%

*Using current implied premium (4.5% per Damodaran 2026), not historical (6.5%)

Cost of Equity (Re)11.04%

Cost of Debt

Pre-tax Cost of Debt1.54%

Tax Rate19.65%

After-tax Cost of Debt1.24%

Equity Weight (E/V)95.07%

Debt Weight (D/V)4.93%

WACC Calculation

WACC = (E/V × Re) + (D/V × Rd × (1-Tc))

WACC = (95.07% × 11.04%) + (4.93% × 1.24%)

= 10.56%

10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)

Year	Year 1	Year 3	Year 5	Year 7	Year 10
Revenue	$7.2B	$8.8B	$10.2B	$11.0B	$12.3B
EBIT	$1.3B	$1.7B	$2.0B	$2.4B	$2.9B
Tax	$265M	$325M	$403M	$472M	$564M
NOPAT	$1.1B	$1.3B	$1.6B	$1.9B	$2.3B
+ Depreciation	$173M	$212M	$247M	$266M	$297M
- Capex	$80M	$98M	$114M	$122M	$137M
- Δ NWC	$104M	$81M	$37M	$40M	$44M
Free Cash Flow	$1.1B	$1.4B	$1.7B	$2.0B	$2.4B
Discount Factor	0.905	0.740	0.605	0.495	0.367
Present Value	$971M	$1.0B	$1.1B	$1.0B	$888M

FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital

Terminal Value Calculation

Perpetuity Growth Method

Year 10 FCF$2.4B

Terminal Growth Rate3.75%

WACC10.56%

TV = FCF₁₀ × (1+g) / (WACC-g)

Terminal Value$36.9B

PV of Terminal Value$13.5B

Exit Multiple Method

Year 10 EBITDA$3.2B

Exit Multiple (EV/EBITDA)28.0x

TV = EBITDA₁₀ × Exit Multiple

Terminal Value$88.7B

PV of Terminal Value$32.5B

Valuation Summary

Perpetuity Growth Method

PV of Projected FCFs$9.9B

PV of Terminal Value$13.5B

Enterprise Value$23.4B

(-) Net Debt$960M

Equity Value$22.5B

Shares Outstanding215M

Price per Share$104.43

Exit Multiple Method

PV of Projected FCFs$9.9B

PV of Terminal Value$32.5B

Enterprise Value$42.4B

(-) Net Debt$960M

Equity Value$41.4B

Shares Outstanding215M

Price per Share$192.68

Pure Model Fair Value

$148.55

Average of perpetuity growth and exit multiple methods (before market calibration)

Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share

WACC ↓ / Growth →	2.75%	3.25%	3.75%	4.25%	4.75%
8.56%	$180.93	$185.30	$190.57	$197.07	$205.28
9.56%	$160.74	$163.63	$167.01	$171.03	$175.89
10.56%	$144.26	$146.26	$148.55	$151.21	$154.33
11.56%	$130.41	$131.85	$133.47	$135.32	$137.44
12.56%	$118.55	$119.62	$120.80	$122.13	$123.63

How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Scenario Analysis

Bear Case

$107.35

-53.3% vs current

• -25% vs analyst consensus
• Terminal growth: 3.3%
• Beta: 1.82

Base Case

$148.55

-35.3% vs current

• Analyst consensus
• Terminal growth: 3.8%
• Beta: 1.45

Bull Case

$197.08

-14.2% vs current

• +25% vs analyst consensus
• Terminal growth: 4.3%
• Beta: 1.24

Key Assumptions & Drivers• Technology Sector

Growth Assumptions (Select Years)

Year 1 Revenue Growth16.89%

Year 3 Revenue Growth10.18%

Year 5 Revenue Growth3.75%

Year 7 Revenue Growth3.75%

Year 10 Revenue Growth3.75%

Terminal Growth Rate3.75%

Margin & Efficiency

Current EBIT Margin18.82%

Terminal EBIT Margin25.00%

Tax Rate19.65%

Historical Capex / Rev1.11%

NWC / Revenue10.00%

Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.

Institutional-Grade Methodology

Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta

Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 28x EV/EBITDA (Technology sector)

This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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