10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)
| Year | Year 1 | Year 3 | Year 5 | Year 7 | Year 10 |
|---|
| Revenue | $12.5B | $12.4B | $12.9B | $13.4B | $14.2B |
| EBIT | $3.6B | $3.6B | $3.7B | $3.9B | $4.1B |
| Tax | $763M | $754M | $784M | $816M | $866M |
| NOPAT | $2.9B | $2.8B | $3.0B | $3.1B | $3.3B |
| + Depreciation | $1.2B | $1.2B | $1.3B | $1.3B | $1.4B |
| - Capex | $5.7B | $4.5B | $3.5B | $2.5B | $712M |
| - Δ NWC | $29M | -$38M | $24M | $25M | $26M |
| Free Cash Flow | -$1.6B | -$424M | $651M | $1.9B | $3.9B |
| Discount Factor | 0.902 | 0.735 | 0.598 | 0.487 | 0.358 |
| Present Value | -$1.5B | -$312M | $389M | $915M | $1.4B |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 1.00% | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% |
|---|
| 8.83% | $37.66 | $38.78 | $40.06 | $41.54 | $43.28 |
| 9.83% | $31.81 | $32.62 | $33.52 | $34.55 | $35.73 |
| 10.83% | $26.94 | $27.53 | $28.19 | $28.93 | $29.77 |
| 11.83% | $22.80 | $23.25 | $23.74 | $24.29 | $24.90 |
| 12.83% | $19.24 | $19.59 | $19.96 | $20.38 | $20.83 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers• Utilities Sector
Growth Assumptions (Select Years)
Year 1 Revenue Growth2.49%
Year 3 Revenue Growth-3.14%
Year 5 Revenue Growth2.00%
Year 7 Revenue Growth2.00%
Year 10 Revenue Growth2.00%
Terminal Growth Rate2.00%
Margin & Efficiency
Current EBIT Margin28.97%
Tax Rate21.00%
Historical Capex / Rev45.31%
Terminal Capex / Rev5.00%
NWC / Revenue9.41%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 16x EV/EBITDA (Utilities sector)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.