10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)
| Year | Year 1 | Year 3 | Year 5 | Year 7 | Year 10 |
|---|
| Revenue | $4.3B | $4.7B | $5.2B | $5.4B | $5.8B |
| EBIT | $1.0B | $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.3B | $1.4B |
| Tax | $166M | $179M | $199M | $208M | $222M |
| NOPAT | $858M | $927M | $1.0B | $1.1B | $1.1B |
| + Depreciation | $116M | $125M | $138M | $145M | $155M |
| - Capex | $81M | $88M | $98M | $102M | $109M |
| - Δ NWC | $18M | $11M | $8M | $9M | $9M |
| Free Cash Flow | $874M | $953M | $1.1B | $1.1B | $1.2B |
| Discount Factor | 0.923 | 0.787 | 0.671 | 0.572 | 0.450 |
| Present Value | $807M | $750M | $711M | $633M | $533M |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 1.25% | 1.75% | 2.25% | 2.75% | 3.25% |
|---|
| 6.32% | $225.84 | $234.41 | $245.09 | $258.75 | $276.88 |
| 7.32% | $196.08 | $201.48 | $207.94 | $215.82 | $225.63 |
| 8.32% | $172.88 | $176.49 | $180.71 | $185.67 | $191.62 |
| 9.32% | $154.05 | $156.58 | $159.46 | $162.79 | $166.67 |
| 10.32% | $138.32 | $140.15 | $142.21 | $144.54 | $147.20 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers• Industrials Sector
Growth Assumptions (Select Years)
Year 1 Revenue Growth6.17%
Year 3 Revenue Growth3.31%
Year 5 Revenue Growth2.25%
Year 7 Revenue Growth2.25%
Year 10 Revenue Growth2.25%
Terminal Growth Rate2.25%
Margin & Efficiency
Current EBIT Margin23.71%
Tax Rate16.22%
Historical Capex / Rev1.89%
NWC / Revenue7.20%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 18x EV/EBITDA (Industrials sector)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.