10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)
| Year | Year 1 | Year 3 | Year 5 | Year 7 | Year 10 |
|---|
| Revenue | $7.3B | $7.9B | $8.2B | $8.0B | $8.2B |
| EBIT | $2.6B | $2.8B | $2.9B | $2.8B | $2.9B |
| Tax | $766M | $831M | $860M | $834M | $860M |
| NOPAT | $1.8B | $1.9B | $2.0B | $1.9B | $2.0B |
| + Depreciation | $1.5B | $1.6B | $1.6B | $1.6B | $1.6B |
| - Capex | $1.9B | $1.7B | $1.4B | $976M | $452M |
| - Δ NWC | -$36M | $8M | -$6M | -$2M | $4M |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.4B | $1.8B | $2.3B | $2.6B | $3.2B |
| Discount Factor | 0.937 | 0.822 | 0.721 | 0.633 | 0.520 |
| Present Value | $1.3B | $1.5B | $1.6B | $1.6B | $1.7B |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 1.00% | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% |
|---|
| 4.76% | $167.17 | $179.14 | $195.45 | $218.98 | $230.79 |
| 5.76% | $138.38 | $145.02 | $153.43 | $164.41 | $179.38 |
| 6.76% | $118.08 | $122.16 | $127.10 | $133.19 | $140.92 |
| 7.76% | $102.68 | $105.37 | $108.52 | $112.27 | $116.81 |
| 8.76% | $90.44 | $92.30 | $94.43 | $96.90 | $99.81 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers✓ Using Analyst Consensus Estimates• Energy Sector
Growth Assumptions (Select Years)
Year 1 Revenue Growth-17.92%
Year 3 Revenue Growth4.54%
Year 5 Revenue Growth-2.97%
Year 7 Revenue Growth-0.98%
Year 10 Revenue Growth2.00%
Terminal Growth Rate2.00%
Margin & Efficiency
Current EBIT Margin34.88%
Tax Rate30.00%
Historical Capex / Rev25.74%
Terminal Capex / Rev5.50%
NWC / Revenue2.26%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 14x EV/EBITDA (Energy sector)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.