10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)
| Year | Year 1 | Year 3 | Year 5 | Year 7 | Year 10 |
|---|
| Revenue | $7.3B | $8.0B | $8.8B | $9.1B | $9.7B |
| EBIT | $616M | $680M | $744M | $774M | $821M |
| Tax | $167M | $185M | $202M | $210M | $223M |
| NOPAT | $449M | $496M | $542M | $563M | $598M |
| + Depreciation | $957M | $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.2B | $1.3B |
| - Capex | $1.5B | $1.6B | $1.8B | $1.9B | $2.0B |
| - Δ NWC | -$110M | $19M | $8M | $8M | $8M |
| Free Cash Flow | $22M | -$116M | -$114M | -$118M | -$126M |
| Discount Factor | 0.940 | 0.830 | 0.733 | 0.647 | 0.537 |
| Present Value | $21M | -$96M | -$83M | -$77M | -$67M |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 1.00% | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% |
|---|
| 4.41% | $-24.57 | $-25.78 | $-27.49 | $-29.48 | $-28.99 |
| 5.41% | $-22.54 | $-23.18 | $-24.01 | $-25.12 | $-26.69 |
| 6.41% | $-21.30 | $-21.68 | $-22.15 | $-22.74 | $-23.50 |
| 7.41% | $-20.47 | $-20.72 | $-21.01 | $-21.36 | $-21.79 |
| 8.41% | $-19.89 | $-20.06 | $-20.26 | $-20.48 | $-20.75 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers• Energy Sector
Growth Assumptions (Select Years)
Year 1 Revenue Growth-25.25%
Year 3 Revenue Growth5.58%
Year 5 Revenue Growth2.00%
Year 7 Revenue Growth2.00%
Year 10 Revenue Growth2.00%
Terminal Growth Rate2.00%
Margin & Efficiency
EBIT Margin8.47%
Tax Rate27.17%
Capex / Revenue20.52%
NWC / Revenue4.47%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 18x EV/EBITDA (S&P 500: 22x P/E)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.