10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)
| Year | Year 1 | Year 3 | Year 5 | Year 7 | Year 10 |
|---|
| Revenue | $5.3B | $6.1B | $7.3B | $8.0B | $8.6B |
| EBIT | $2.5B | $2.9B | $3.4B | $3.8B | $4.1B |
| Tax | $475M | $544M | $651M | $710M | $768M |
| NOPAT | $2.0B | $2.3B | $2.8B | $3.0B | $3.3B |
| + Depreciation | $686M | $786M | $941M | $1.0B | $1.1B |
| - Capex | $3.1B | $2.8B | $2.5B | $1.8B | $432M |
| - Δ NWC | $191M | $92M | $113M | $93M | $51M |
| Free Cash Flow | -$580M | $188M | $1.1B | $2.2B | $3.9B |
| Discount Factor | 0.941 | 0.832 | 0.736 | 0.652 | 0.542 |
| Present Value | -$545M | $156M | $802M | $1.4B | $2.1B |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 1.00% | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% |
|---|
| 4.31% | $425.79 | $471.17 | $536.20 | $582.23 | $554.81 |
| 5.31% | $330.70 | $354.29 | $385.01 | $426.66 | $486.34 |
| 6.31% | $267.05 | $280.98 | $298.14 | $319.81 | $348.03 |
| 7.31% | $220.49 | $229.41 | $240.01 | $252.82 | $268.60 |
| 8.31% | $184.45 | $190.50 | $197.50 | $205.71 | $215.46 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers✓ Using Analyst Consensus Estimates• Utilities Sector
Growth Assumptions (Select Years)
Year 1 Revenue Growth13.53%
Year 3 Revenue Growth5.28%
Year 5 Revenue Growth5.40%
Year 7 Revenue Growth4.04%
Year 10 Revenue Growth2.00%
Terminal Growth Rate2.00%
Margin & Efficiency
Current EBIT Margin47.11%
Tax Rate18.90%
Historical Capex / Rev58.34%
Terminal Capex / Rev5.00%
NWC / Revenue30.00%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 16x EV/EBITDA (Utilities sector)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.