5-Year Free Cash Flow Projections
| Year | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|
| Revenue | $5.3B | $5.7B | $6.0B | $6.9B | $7.3B |
| EBIT | $1.5B | $1.7B | $1.7B | $2.0B | $2.1B |
| Tax | $290M | $315M | $329M | $381M | $401M |
| NOPAT | $1.2B | $1.4B | $1.4B | $1.6B | $1.7B |
| + Depreciation | $679M | $737M | $771M | $893M | $941M |
| - Capex | $3.1B | $3.3B | $3.5B | $4.1B | $4.3B |
| - Δ NWC | $58M | $45M | $26M | $94M | $38M |
| Free Cash Flow | -$1.2B | -$1.3B | -$1.3B | -$1.6B | -$1.6B |
| Discount Factor | 0.941 | 0.886 | 0.834 | 0.784 | 0.738 |
| Present Value | -$1.1B | -$1.2B | -$1.1B | -$1.3B | -$1.2B |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% | 4.00% |
|---|
| 4.26% | $-473.59 | $-519.65 | $-511.65 | $-503.83 | $-496.20 |
| 5.26% | $-344.95 | $-391.83 | $-459.46 | $-503.83 | $-496.20 |
| 6.26% | $-277.25 | $-302.60 | $-335.72 | $-380.86 | $-445.98 |
| 7.26% | $-235.70 | $-251.32 | $-270.60 | $-295.01 | $-326.92 |
| 8.26% | $-207.74 | $-218.18 | $-230.62 | $-245.66 | $-264.24 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers✓ Using Analyst Consensus Estimates
Growth Assumptions
Year 1 Revenue Growth12.37%
Year 2 Revenue Growth8.55%
Year 3 Revenue Growth4.61%
Year 4 Revenue Growth15.71%
Year 5 Revenue Growth5.40%
Terminal Growth Rate3.00%
Margin & Efficiency
EBIT Margin29.03%
Tax Rate18.90%
Capex / Revenue58.34%
NWC / Revenue10.00%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 18x EV/EBITDA (S&P 500: 22x P/E)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.