5-Year Free Cash Flow Projections
| Year | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|
| Revenue | $5.4B | $5.8B | $6.3B | $7.1B | $7.3B |
| EBIT | $2.0B | $2.1B | $2.3B | $2.6B | $2.6B |
| Tax | $450M | $483M | $521M | $583M | $600M |
| NOPAT | $1.5B | $1.6B | $1.8B | $2.0B | $2.0B |
| + Depreciation | $786M | $844M | $910M | $1.0B | $1.0B |
| - Capex | $2.7B | $2.9B | $3.2B | $3.6B | $3.7B |
| - Δ NWC | $76M | $40M | $46M | $75M | $21M |
| Free Cash Flow | -$500M | -$496M | -$538M | -$625M | -$588M |
| Discount Factor | 0.943 | 0.889 | 0.838 | 0.791 | 0.746 |
| Present Value | -$472M | -$441M | -$451M | -$494M | -$438M |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% | 4.00% |
|---|
| 4.05% | $-206.61 | $-207.49 | $-205.15 | $-202.87 | $-200.65 |
| 5.05% | $-162.36 | $-178.29 | $-202.01 | $-202.87 | $-200.65 |
| 6.05% | $-140.13 | $-148.43 | $-159.45 | $-174.79 | $-197.62 |
| 7.05% | $-126.83 | $-131.83 | $-138.06 | $-146.05 | $-156.67 |
| 8.05% | $-118.02 | $-121.32 | $-125.27 | $-130.08 | $-136.09 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers
Growth Assumptions
Year 1 Revenue Growth16.20%
Year 2 Revenue Growth7.38%
Year 3 Revenue Growth7.87%
Year 4 Revenue Growth11.89%
Year 5 Revenue Growth3.00%
Terminal Growth Rate3.00%
Margin & Efficiency
EBIT Margin36.46%
Tax Rate22.66%
Capex / Revenue50.43%
NWC / Revenue10.00%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 18x EV/EBITDA (S&P 500: 22x P/E)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.