Bunge Global S.A.BGNYSE
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DCF Valuation
DCF Valuation Summary
Strong Buy
Base Case: $226.36 per share
+84.7%
Upside to Target
Bear Case
$223.71
Base Case
$226.36
Current
$122.53
Bull Case
$261.87
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)
Cost of Equity (CAPM)
Risk-Free Rate (Rf)4.50%
Beta (β)0.75
Market Risk Premium4.50%
*Using current implied premium (4.5% per Damodaran 2026), not historical (6.5%)
Cost of Equity (Re)7.89%
Cost of Debt
Pre-tax Cost of Debt2.67%
Tax Rate25.40%
After-tax Cost of Debt1.99%
Equity Weight (E/V)54.54%
Debt Weight (D/V)45.46%
WACC Calculation
WACC = (E/V × Re) + (D/V × Rd × (1-Tc))
WACC = (54.54% × 7.89%) + (45.46% × 1.99%)
= 5.50%
10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)
| Year | Year 1 | Year 3 | Year 5 | Year 7 | Year 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $91.2B | $95.3B | $100.6B | $106.2B | $115.2B |
| EBIT | $3.8B | $3.9B | $4.2B | $4.4B | $4.8B |
| Tax | $958M | $1.0B | $1.1B | $1.1B | $1.2B |
| NOPAT | $2.8B | $2.9B | $3.1B | $3.3B | $3.6B |
| + Depreciation | $636M | $665M | $702M | $741M | $804M |
| - Capex | $1.3B | $1.4B | $1.5B | $1.6B | $1.7B |
| - Δ NWC | $2.9B | $151M | $378M | $399M | $433M |
| Free Cash Flow | -$820M | $2.1B | $1.9B | $2.1B | $2.2B |
| Discount Factor | 0.948 | 0.852 | 0.765 | 0.687 | 0.585 |
| Present Value | -$777M | $1.7B | $1.5B | $1.4B | $1.3B |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Terminal Value Calculation
Perpetuity Growth Method
Year 10 FCF$2.2B
Terminal Growth Rate0.64%
WACC5.50%
TV = FCF₁₀ × (1+g) / (WACC-g)
Terminal Value$46.2B
PV of Terminal Value$27.1B
Exit Multiple Method
Year 10 EBITDA$5.6B
Exit Multiple (EV/EBITDA)16.8x
TV = EBITDA₁₀ × Exit Multiple
Terminal Value$93.6B
PV of Terminal Value$54.8B
Valuation Summary
Perpetuity Growth Method
PV of Projected FCFs$12.5B
PV of Terminal Value$27.1B
Enterprise Value$39.5B
(-) Net Debt$15.8B
Equity Value$23.7B
Shares Outstanding$166M
Price per Share$142.73
Exit Multiple Method
PV of Projected FCFs$12.5B
PV of Terminal Value$54.8B
Enterprise Value$67.3B
(-) Net Debt$15.8B
Equity Value$51.5B
Shares Outstanding$166M
Price per Share$309.99
Base Case Fair Value
$226.36
Average of perpetuity growth and exit multiple methods
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 1.00% | 1.50% | 0.64% | 1.14% | 1.64% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.50% | $364.51 | $463.08 | $315.32 | $388.55 | $457.10 |
| 4.50% | $229.37 | $272.42 | $205.50 | $240.43 | $287.58 |
| 5.50% | $156.26 | $179.31 | $142.73 | $162.34 | $187.03 |
| 6.50% | $111.16 | $125.02 | $102.72 | $114.87 | $129.53 |
| 7.50% | $81.01 | $90.00 | $75.41 | $83.45 | $92.86 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Scenario Analysis
Bear Case
$223.71
82.6% vs current
- • -25% vs analyst consensus
- • Terminal growth: 2.0%
- • Beta: 0.94
Base Case
$226.36
84.7% vs current
- • Analyst consensus
- • Terminal growth: 0.6%
- • Beta: 0.75
Bull Case
$261.87
113.7% vs current
- • +25% vs analyst consensus
- • Terminal growth: 1.1%
- • Beta: 0.64
Key Assumptions & Drivers• Consumer Defensive Sector
Growth Assumptions (Select Years)
Year 1 Revenue Growth29.68%
Year 3 Revenue Growth1.14%
Year 5 Revenue Growth2.75%
Year 7 Revenue Growth2.75%
Year 10 Revenue Growth2.75%
Terminal Growth Rate0.64%
Margin & Efficiency
EBIT Margin4.13%
Tax Rate25.40%
Capex / Revenue1.47%
NWC / Revenue14.02%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 18x EV/EBITDA (S&P 500: 22x P/E)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.