Bunge Global S.A.BGNYSE

Overview Intelligence Charts News Fundamentals Key Metrics TTM Financials Earnings Growth Rating Analysts Institutional Peers Historical

DCF Valuation

DCF Valuation Summary

Strong Buy

Fair Value: $1,189.01 per share(market-calibrated)

+913.7%

Upside to Fair Value

Current

$117.30

Pure Model

$1,308.45

Fair Value

$1,189.01

Bull Case

$1,593.10

Bear Case

$1,068.54

Market Reality Check

Model Terminal Growth

2.50%

Market-Implied Growth

0.50%

Calibrated Growth

1.80%

Fair value uses 65% model / 35% market-implied terminal growth. Pure model: $1,308.45.

What's Driving This Ratingfor BG

✓

CapEx already efficient

CapEx at 1.47% of revenue is already at or below sector maintenance level. No normalization needed — cash conversion is already strong.

↑

Margin expansion modeled

Current EBIT margin is 4.13% — below the sector mature average of 16.00%. Model expands margins as the business scales and operating leverage kicks in. Year 10 EBIT reaches $15.3B (13.51% margin).

⚠

Analyst growth decelerates sharply

Revenue growth drops from 29.68% in Year 1 to 2.50% by Year 5 (per analyst consensus). This growth deceleration is a key reason the model may undervalue the stock if growth re-accelerates.

🎯

Market pricing in lower growth than model

The market implies only 0.50% perpetual growth — 200bps below the model's 2.50%. This suggests the market sees headwinds or risks not in the model.

✓

Strong cash flow conversion

Year 10 FCF/EBITDA conversion of 63.24% indicates efficient cash generation. FCF reaches $10.2B by Year 10 (8.99% FCF margin).

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

Cost of Equity (CAPM)

Risk-Free Rate (Rf)4.50%

Beta (β)0.75

Market Risk Premium4.50%

*Using current implied premium (4.5% per Damodaran 2026), not historical (6.5%)

Cost of Equity (Re)7.89%

Cost of Debt

Pre-tax Cost of Debt2.67%

Tax Rate25.40%

After-tax Cost of Debt1.99%

Equity Weight (E/V)53.46%

Debt Weight (D/V)46.54%

WACC Calculation

WACC = (E/V × Re) + (D/V × Rd × (1-Tc))

WACC = (53.46% × 7.89%) + (46.54% × 1.99%)

= 5.50%

10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)

Year	Year 1	Year 3	Year 5	Year 7	Year 10
Revenue	$91.2B	$95.3B	$100.1B	$105.2B	$113.3B
EBIT	$3.8B	$3.9B	$8.4B	$11.7B	$15.3B
Tax	$958M	$1.0B	$2.1B	$3.0B	$3.9B
NOPAT	$2.8B	$2.9B	$6.3B	$8.7B	$11.4B
+ Depreciation	$636M	$665M	$699M	$734M	$791M
- Capex	$1.3B	$1.4B	$1.5B	$1.5B	$1.7B
- Δ NWC	$2.7B	$141M	$320M	$337M	$363M
Free Cash Flow	-$631M	$2.1B	$5.2B	$7.6B	$10.2B
Discount Factor	0.948	0.852	0.765	0.687	0.585
Present Value	-$598M	$1.8B	$4.0B	$5.2B	$6.0B

FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital

Terminal Value Calculation

Perpetuity Growth Method

Year 10 FCF$10.2B

Terminal Growth Rate2.50%

WACC5.50%

TV = FCF₁₀ × (1+g) / (WACC-g)

Terminal Value$347.8B

PV of Terminal Value$203.6B

Exit Multiple Method

Year 10 EBITDA$16.1B

Exit Multiple (EV/EBITDA)20.0x

TV = EBITDA₁₀ × Exit Multiple

Terminal Value$322.0B

PV of Terminal Value$188.5B

Valuation Summary

Perpetuity Growth Method

PV of Projected FCFs$37.0B

PV of Terminal Value$203.6B

Enterprise Value$240.6B

(-) Net Debt$15.8B

Equity Value$224.8B

Shares Outstanding166M

Price per Share$1,354.08

Exit Multiple Method

PV of Projected FCFs$37.0B

PV of Terminal Value$188.5B

Enterprise Value$225.4B

(-) Net Debt$15.8B

Equity Value$209.6B

Shares Outstanding166M

Price per Share$1,262.82

Pure Model Fair Value

$1,308.45

Average of perpetuity growth and exit multiple methods (before market calibration)

Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share

WACC ↓ / Growth →	1.50%	2.00%	2.50%	3.00%	3.50%
3.50%	$1,950.50	$1,862.80	$1,779.31	$1,699.82	$1,624.10
4.50%	$1,435.41	$1,572.97	$1,779.31	$1,699.82	$1,624.10
5.50%	$1,150.62	$1,218.26	$1,308.45	$1,434.71	$1,624.10
6.50%	$961.30	$999.96	$1,048.29	$1,110.42	$1,193.27
7.50%	$822.11	$846.34	$875.42	$910.96	$955.39

How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Scenario Analysis

Bear Case

$1,068.54

811.0% vs current

• -25% vs analyst consensus
• Terminal growth: 2.0%
• Beta: 0.94

Base Case

$1,308.45

1015.5% vs current

• Analyst consensus
• Terminal growth: 2.5%
• Beta: 0.75

Bull Case

$1,593.10

1258.2% vs current

• +25% vs analyst consensus
• Terminal growth: 3.0%
• Beta: 0.64

Key Assumptions & Drivers• Consumer Defensive Sector

Growth Assumptions (Select Years)

Year 1 Revenue Growth29.68%

Year 3 Revenue Growth1.14%

Year 5 Revenue Growth2.50%

Year 7 Revenue Growth2.50%

Year 10 Revenue Growth2.50%

Terminal Growth Rate2.50%

Margin & Efficiency

Current EBIT Margin4.13%

Terminal EBIT Margin16.00%

Tax Rate25.40%

Historical Capex / Rev1.47%

NWC / Revenue13.12%

Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.

Institutional-Grade Methodology

Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta

Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 20x EV/EBITDA (Consumer Defensive sector)

This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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