Brown & Brown, Inc.BRONYSE

Overview Intelligence Charts News Fundamentals Key Metrics TTM Financials Earnings Growth Rating Analysts Institutional Peers Historical

DCF Valuation

DCF Valuation Summary

Strong Buy

Fair Value: $112.73 per share(market-calibrated)

+55.8%

Upside to Fair Value

Current

$72.36

Pure Model

$121.88

Fair Value

$112.73

Bull Case

$163.88

Bear Case

$89.34

Market Reality Check

Model Terminal Growth

2.50%

Market-Implied Growth

0.50%

Calibrated Growth

1.80%

Fair value uses 65% model / 35% market-implied terminal growth. Pure model: $121.88.

What's Driving This Ratingfor BRO

✓

CapEx already efficient

CapEx at 1.06% of revenue is already at or below sector maintenance level. No normalization needed — cash conversion is already strong.

✓

Premium margins already priced in

EBIT margin of 29.57% is already well above sector average. The model holds this level — there's limited room for margin expansion to drive upside. Valuation depends primarily on revenue growth.

⚠

Analyst growth decelerates sharply

Revenue growth drops from 20.71% in Year 1 to 2.50% by Year 5 (per analyst consensus). This growth deceleration is a key reason the model may undervalue the stock if growth re-accelerates.

↔

Perpetuity and exit methods disagree

Perpetuity growth gives $145.47/share (26.2x terminal FCF) while exit multiple gives $98.30/share (15.6x terminal FCF). The base case averages both methods.

🎯

Market pricing in lower growth than model

The market implies only 0.50% perpetual growth — 200bps below the model's 2.50%. This suggests the market sees headwinds or risks not in the model.

✓

Strong cash flow conversion

Year 10 FCF/EBITDA conversion of 77.04% indicates efficient cash generation. FCF reaches $2.6B by Year 10 (25.72% FCF margin).

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

Cost of Equity (CAPM)

Risk-Free Rate (Rf)4.50%

Beta (β)0.79

Market Risk Premium4.50%

*Using current implied premium (4.5% per Damodaran 2026), not historical (6.5%)

Cost of Equity (Re)8.04%

Cost of Debt

Pre-tax Cost of Debt2.29%

Tax Rate22.17%

After-tax Cost of Debt1.78%

Equity Weight (E/V)73.91%

Debt Weight (D/V)26.09%

WACC Calculation

WACC = (E/V × Re) + (D/V × Rd × (1-Tc))

WACC = (73.91% × 8.04%) + (26.09% × 1.78%)

= 6.41%

10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)

Year	Year 1	Year 3	Year 5	Year 7	Year 10
Revenue	$7.2B	$8.2B	$8.8B	$9.2B	$9.9B
EBIT	$2.1B	$2.4B	$2.6B	$2.7B	$2.9B
Tax	$471M	$537M	$575M	$604M	$650M
NOPAT	$1.7B	$1.9B	$2.0B	$2.1B	$2.3B
+ Depreciation	$274M	$312M	$334M	$351M	$378M
- Capex	$76M	$87M	$93M	$98M	$105M
- Δ NWC	$22M	$9M	$4M	$4M	$4M
Free Cash Flow	$1.8B	$2.1B	$2.3B	$2.4B	$2.6B
Discount Factor	0.940	0.830	0.733	0.648	0.537
Present Value	$1.7B	$1.7B	$1.7B	$1.5B	$1.4B

FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital

Terminal Value Calculation

Perpetuity Growth Method

Year 10 FCF$2.6B

Terminal Growth Rate2.50%

WACC6.41%

TV = FCF₁₀ × (1+g) / (WACC-g)

Terminal Value$66.9B

PV of Terminal Value$36.0B

Exit Multiple Method

Year 10 EBITDA$3.3B

Exit Multiple (EV/EBITDA)12.0x

TV = EBITDA₁₀ × Exit Multiple

Terminal Value$39.7B

PV of Terminal Value$21.3B

Valuation Summary

Perpetuity Growth Method

PV of Projected FCFs$16.0B

PV of Terminal Value$36.0B

Enterprise Value$51.9B

(-) Net Debt$6.8B

Equity Value$45.1B

Shares Outstanding310M

Price per Share$145.47

Exit Multiple Method

PV of Projected FCFs$16.0B

PV of Terminal Value$21.3B

Enterprise Value$37.3B

(-) Net Debt$6.8B

Equity Value$30.5B

Shares Outstanding310M

Price per Share$98.30

Pure Model Fair Value

$121.88

Average of perpetuity growth and exit multiple methods (before market calibration)

Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share

WACC ↓ / Growth →	1.50%	2.00%	2.50%	3.00%	3.50%
4.41%	$169.92	$189.88	$211.66	$202.60	$193.95
5.41%	$133.07	$142.69	$155.63	$173.95	$193.95
6.41%	$109.61	$115.05	$121.88	$130.73	$142.61
7.41%	$92.93	$96.32	$100.40	$105.40	$111.68
8.41%	$80.24	$82.49	$85.12	$88.23	$91.98

How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Scenario Analysis

Bear Case

$89.34

23.5% vs current

• -25% vs analyst consensus
• Terminal growth: 2.0%
• Beta: 0.98

Base Case

$121.88

68.4% vs current

• Analyst consensus
• Terminal growth: 2.5%
• Beta: 0.79

Bull Case

$163.88

126.5% vs current

• +25% vs analyst consensus
• Terminal growth: 3.0%
• Beta: 0.67

Key Assumptions & Drivers• Financial Services Sector

Growth Assumptions (Select Years)

Year 1 Revenue Growth20.71%

Year 3 Revenue Growth6.50%

Year 5 Revenue Growth2.50%

Year 7 Revenue Growth2.50%

Year 10 Revenue Growth2.50%

Terminal Growth Rate2.50%

Margin & Efficiency

Current EBIT Margin29.57%

Tax Rate22.17%

Historical Capex / Rev1.06%

NWC / Revenue1.82%

Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.

Institutional-Grade Methodology

Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta

Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 12x EV/EBITDA (Financial Services sector)

This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Explore More

S&P 500 Screener

Filter and sort all 500 stocks

Market Movers

Today's biggest gainers and losers

Market Heatmap

Visual sector performance