C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.CHRWNASDAQ

Overview Intelligence Charts News Fundamentals Key Metrics TTM Financials Earnings Growth Rating Analysts Institutional Peers Historical

DCF Valuation

⚠️Model Warnings

•Revenue projections show 42% decline from peak. Analyst estimates may reflect secular headwinds or transition period.

DCF Valuation Summary

Strong Sell

Fair Value: $86.77 per share(market-calibrated)

-53.7%

Upside to Fair Value

Current

$187.24

Pure Model

$53.28

Fair Value

$86.77

Bull Case

$45.51

Bear Case

$60.07

Market Reality Check

Model Terminal Growth

2.25%

Market-Implied Growth

Unreachable

Calibrated Growth

75/25 blend

Market price implies assumptions beyond model range. Fair value blends 75% model / 25% market price.

What's Driving This Ratingfor CHRW

✓

CapEx already efficient

CapEx at 0.40% of revenue is already at or below sector maintenance level. No normalization needed — cash conversion is already strong.

↑

Margin expansion modeled

Current EBIT margin is 4.27% — below the sector mature average of 13.00%. Model expands margins as the business scales and operating leverage kicks in. Year 10 EBIT reaches $539M (10.14% margin).

⚠

Analyst growth decelerates sharply

Revenue growth drops from 2.24% in Year 1 to -35.77% by Year 5 (per analyst consensus). That's below the 2.25% terminal rate, so growth re-accelerates in Years 6-10 — a generous assumption. This growth deceleration is a key reason the model may undervalue the stock if growth re-accelerates.

⚠

Market price exceeds model's maximum

Even with the most optimistic terminal growth the model allows, it can't reach $187.24. The market is pricing in factors beyond the DCF framework — possibly optionality, brand premium, or expectations of margin/growth inflection not yet in analyst estimates.

✓

Strong cash flow conversion

Year 10 FCF/EBITDA conversion of 77.45% indicates efficient cash generation. FCF reaches $442M by Year 10 (8.31% FCF margin).

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

Cost of Equity (CAPM)

Risk-Free Rate (Rf)4.50%

Beta (β)0.90

Market Risk Premium4.50%

*Using current implied premium (4.5% per Damodaran 2026), not historical (6.5%)

Cost of Equity (Re)8.53%

Cost of Debt

Pre-tax Cost of Debt5.14%

Tax Rate18.74%

After-tax Cost of Debt4.17%

Equity Weight (E/V)93.25%

Debt Weight (D/V)6.75%

WACC Calculation

WACC = (E/V × Re) + (D/V × Rd × (1-Tc))

WACC = (93.25% × 8.53%) + (6.75% × 4.17%)

= 8.24%

10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)

Year	Year 1	Year 3	Year 5	Year 7	Year 10
Revenue	$16.6B	$19.0B	$11.1B	$6.3B	$5.3B
EBIT	$709M	$809M	$472M	$468M	$539M
Tax	$133M	$152M	$89M	$88M	$101M
NOPAT	$576M	$658M	$384M	$380M	$438M
+ Depreciation	$99M	$113M	$66M	$38M	$32M
- Capex	$67M	$76M	$44M	$25M	$21M
- Δ NWC	$20M	$68M	-$333M	-$88M	$6M
Free Cash Flow	$588M	$626M	$739M	$481M	$442M
Discount Factor	0.924	0.789	0.673	0.575	0.453
Present Value	$544M	$494M	$497M	$276M	$200M

FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital

Terminal Value Calculation

Perpetuity Growth Method

Year 10 FCF$442M

Terminal Growth Rate2.25%

WACC8.24%

TV = FCF₁₀ × (1+g) / (WACC-g)

Terminal Value$7.5B

PV of Terminal Value$3.4B

Exit Multiple Method

Year 10 EBITDA$571M

Exit Multiple (EV/EBITDA)18.0x

TV = EBITDA₁₀ × Exit Multiple

Terminal Value$10.3B

PV of Terminal Value$4.7B

Valuation Summary

Perpetuity Growth Method

PV of Projected FCFs$3.8B

PV of Terminal Value$3.4B

Enterprise Value$7.3B

(-) Net Debt$1.5B

Equity Value$5.8B

Shares Outstanding120M

Price per Share$48.15

Exit Multiple Method

PV of Projected FCFs$3.8B

PV of Terminal Value$4.7B

Enterprise Value$8.5B

(-) Net Debt$1.5B

Equity Value$7.0B

Shares Outstanding120M

Price per Share$58.42

Pure Model Fair Value

$53.28

Average of perpetuity growth and exit multiple methods (before market calibration)

Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share

WACC ↓ / Growth →	1.25%	1.75%	2.25%	2.75%	3.25%
6.24%	$66.26	$68.65	$71.63	$75.46	$80.58
7.24%	$57.78	$59.27	$61.06	$63.25	$65.99
8.24%	$51.13	$52.12	$53.28	$54.65	$56.30
9.24%	$45.69	$46.38	$47.18	$48.09	$49.16
10.24%	$41.12	$41.62	$42.19	$42.83	$43.56

How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Scenario Analysis

Bear Case

$60.07

-67.9% vs current

• -25% vs analyst consensus
• Terminal growth: 2.0%
• Beta: 1.12

Base Case

$53.28

-71.5% vs current

• Analyst consensus
• Terminal growth: 2.3%
• Beta: 0.90

Bull Case

$45.51

-75.7% vs current

• +25% vs analyst consensus
• Terminal growth: 2.8%
• Beta: 0.76

Key Assumptions & Drivers✓ Using Analyst Consensus Estimates• Industrials Sector

Growth Assumptions (Select Years)

Year 1 Revenue Growth2.24%

Year 3 Revenue Growth7.15%

Year 5 Revenue Growth-35.77%

Year 7 Revenue Growth-20.56%

Year 10 Revenue Growth2.25%

Terminal Growth Rate2.25%

Margin & Efficiency

Current EBIT Margin4.27%

Terminal EBIT Margin13.00%

Tax Rate18.74%

Historical Capex / Rev0.40%

NWC / Revenue5.41%

Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.

Institutional-Grade Methodology

Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta

Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 18x EV/EBITDA (Industrials sector)

This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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