Comcast CorporationCMCSANASDAQ

Overview Intelligence Charts News Fundamentals Key Metrics TTM Financials Earnings Growth Rating Analysts Institutional Peers Historical

DCF Valuation

DCF Valuation Summary

Strong Buy

Fair Value: $277.57 per share(market-calibrated)

+789.1%

Upside to Fair Value

Current

$31.22

Pure Model

$318.48

Fair Value

$277.57

Bull Case

$374.31

Bear Case

$253.38

Market Reality Check

Model Terminal Growth

3.00%

Market-Implied Growth

0.50%

Calibrated Growth

2.13%

Fair value uses 65% model / 35% market-implied terminal growth. Pure model: $318.48.

What's Driving This Ratingfor CMCSA

↓

CapEx normalizing toward maintenance

Historical CapEx is 10.56% of revenue (heavy investment phase). Model fades this to 4.50% by Year 10, freeing up ~$9.1B in annual FCF. This is the biggest driver of long-term cash flow improvement.

✓

Premium margins already priced in

EBIT margin of 31.73% is already well above sector average. The model holds this level — there's limited room for margin expansion to drive upside. Valuation depends primarily on revenue growth.

→

Moderate revenue growth

Analyst consensus projects -0.89% revenue growth, fading to 3.00% by Year 10. Revenue reaches $149.7B (vs $123.7B today).

🎯

Market pricing in lower growth than model

The market implies only 0.50% perpetual growth — 250bps below the model's 3.00%. This suggests the market sees headwinds or risks not in the model.

✓

Strong cash flow conversion

Year 10 FCF/EBITDA conversion of 71.72% indicates efficient cash generation. FCF reaches $46.7B by Year 10 (31.21% FCF margin).

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

Cost of Equity (CAPM)

Risk-Free Rate (Rf)4.50%

Beta (β)0.79

Market Risk Premium4.50%

*Using current implied premium (4.5% per Damodaran 2026), not historical (6.5%)

Cost of Equity (Re)8.07%

Cost of Debt

Pre-tax Cost of Debt3.77%

Tax Rate23.70%

After-tax Cost of Debt2.87%

Equity Weight (E/V)50.69%

Debt Weight (D/V)49.31%

WACC Calculation

WACC = (E/V × Re) + (D/V × Rd × (1-Tc))

WACC = (50.69% × 8.07%) + (49.31% × 2.87%)

= 5.51%

10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)

Year	Year 1	Year 3	Year 5	Year 7	Year 10
Revenue	$122.6B	$125.0B	$128.3B	$136.7B	$149.7B
EBIT	$38.9B	$39.6B	$40.7B	$43.4B	$47.5B
Tax	$9.2B	$9.4B	$9.6B	$10.3B	$11.3B
NOPAT	$29.7B	$30.3B	$31.1B	$33.1B	$36.2B
+ Depreciation	$14.5B	$14.7B	$15.1B	$16.1B	$17.7B
- Capex	$12.9B	$11.5B	$10.1B	$8.9B	$6.7B
- Δ NWC	-$110M	$328M	$411M	$422M	$436M
Free Cash Flow	$31.3B	$33.2B	$35.7B	$39.9B	$46.7B
Discount Factor	0.948	0.851	0.765	0.687	0.585
Present Value	$29.7B	$28.2B	$27.3B	$27.4B	$27.3B

FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital

Terminal Value Calculation

Perpetuity Growth Method

Year 10 FCF$46.7B

Terminal Growth Rate3.00%

WACC5.51%

TV = FCF₁₀ × (1+g) / (WACC-g)

Terminal Value$1.9T

PV of Terminal Value$1.1T

Exit Multiple Method

Year 10 EBITDA$65.1B

Exit Multiple (EV/EBITDA)22.0x

TV = EBITDA₁₀ × Exit Multiple

Terminal Value$1.4T

PV of Terminal Value$838.4B

Valuation Summary

Perpetuity Growth Method

PV of Projected FCFs$278.4B

PV of Terminal Value$1.1T

Enterprise Value$1.4T

(-) Net Debt$101.0B

Equity Value$1.3T

Shares Outstanding3.6B

Price per Share$357.58

Exit Multiple Method

PV of Projected FCFs$278.4B

PV of Terminal Value$838.4B

Enterprise Value$1.1T

(-) Net Debt$101.0B

Equity Value$1.0T

Shares Outstanding3.6B

Price per Share$279.38

Pure Model Fair Value

$318.48

Average of perpetuity growth and exit multiple methods (before market calibration)

Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share

WACC ↓ / Growth →	2.00%	2.50%	3.00%	3.50%	4.00%
3.51%	$409.58	$391.84	$374.94	$358.83	$343.47
4.51%	$347.87	$390.79	$374.94	$358.83	$343.47
5.51%	$273.39	$292.18	$318.48	$357.87	$343.47
6.51%	$227.30	$237.38	$250.34	$267.61	$291.76
7.51%	$194.71	$200.78	$208.20	$217.47	$229.38

How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Scenario Analysis

Bear Case

$253.38

711.6% vs current

• -25% vs analyst consensus
• Terminal growth: 2.5%
• Beta: 0.99

Base Case

$318.48

920.1% vs current

• Analyst consensus
• Terminal growth: 3.0%
• Beta: 0.79

Bull Case

$374.31

1098.9% vs current

• +25% vs analyst consensus
• Terminal growth: 3.5%
• Beta: 0.67

Key Assumptions & Drivers✓ Using Analyst Consensus Estimates• Communication Services Sector

Growth Assumptions (Select Years)

Year 1 Revenue Growth-0.89%

Year 3 Revenue Growth2.70%

Year 5 Revenue Growth3.31%

Year 7 Revenue Growth3.18%

Year 10 Revenue Growth3.00%

Terminal Growth Rate3.00%

Margin & Efficiency

Current EBIT Margin31.73%

Tax Rate23.70%

Historical Capex / Rev10.56%

Terminal Capex / Rev4.50%

NWC / Revenue10.00%

Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.

Institutional-Grade Methodology

Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta

Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 22x EV/EBITDA (Communication Services sector)

This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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