5-Year Free Cash Flow Projections
| Year | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|
| Revenue | $13.0B | $14.4B | $16.1B | $17.7B | $19.5B |
| EBIT | $2.0B | $2.2B | $2.5B | $2.7B | $3.0B |
| Tax | $465M | $517M | $578M | $636M | $699M |
| NOPAT | $1.5B | $1.7B | $1.9B | $2.1B | $2.3B |
| + Depreciation | $338M | $376M | $420M | $462M | $509M |
| - Capex | $596M | $662M | $740M | $814M | $895M |
| - Δ NWC | $48M | $67M | $80M | $75M | $83M |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.2B | $1.3B | $1.5B | $1.6B | $1.8B |
| Discount Factor | 0.931 | 0.866 | 0.806 | 0.750 | 0.698 |
| Present Value | $1.1B | $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.2B | $1.3B |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% | 4.00% |
|---|
| 5.47% | $27.63 | $32.91 | $40.33 | $50.55 | $49.55 |
| 6.47% | $19.76 | $22.72 | $26.52 | $31.60 | $38.75 |
| 7.47% | $14.82 | $16.68 | $18.95 | $21.79 | $25.46 |
| 8.47% | $11.45 | $12.71 | $14.20 | $15.98 | $18.17 |
| 9.47% | $9.01 | $9.91 | $10.95 | $12.16 | $13.60 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers✓ Using Analyst Consensus Estimates
Growth Assumptions
Year 1 Revenue Growth8.63%
Year 2 Revenue Growth11.07%
Year 3 Revenue Growth11.84%
Year 4 Revenue Growth10.02%
Year 5 Revenue Growth9.97%
Terminal Growth Rate3.00%
Margin & Efficiency
EBIT Margin15.23%
Tax Rate23.58%
Capex / Revenue4.60%
NWC / Revenue4.68%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 18x EV/EBITDA (S&P 500: 22x P/E)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.