10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)
| Year | Year 1 | Year 3 | Year 5 | Year 7 | Year 10 |
|---|
| Revenue | $56.3B | $67.0B | $72.2B | $74.0B | $77.9B |
| EBIT | $16.7B | $19.9B | $21.4B | $21.9B | $23.1B |
| Tax | $5.0B | $6.0B | $6.4B | $6.6B | $6.9B |
| NOPAT | $11.7B | $13.9B | $15.0B | $15.3B | $16.2B |
| + Depreciation | $8.3B | $9.9B | $10.7B | $10.9B | $11.5B |
| - Capex | $7.9B | $8.1B | $7.4B | $6.2B | $4.3B |
| - Δ NWC | -$8M | $15M | $1M | $2M | $3M |
| Free Cash Flow | $12.1B | $15.7B | $18.3B | $20.1B | $23.4B |
| Discount Factor | 0.948 | 0.852 | 0.765 | 0.687 | 0.585 |
| Present Value | $11.5B | $13.3B | $14.0B | $13.8B | $13.7B |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 1.00% | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% |
|---|
| 3.50% | $534.10 | $605.82 | $580.76 | $556.87 | $534.10 |
| 4.50% | $415.92 | $447.25 | $491.10 | $556.87 | $534.10 |
| 5.50% | $344.69 | $361.46 | $383.02 | $411.77 | $452.02 |
| 6.50% | $295.47 | $305.55 | $317.87 | $333.28 | $353.08 |
| 7.50% | $258.58 | $265.12 | $272.85 | $282.12 | $293.45 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers✓ Using Analyst Consensus Estimates• Energy Sector
Growth Assumptions (Select Years)
Year 1 Revenue Growth-5.66%
Year 3 Revenue Growth10.91%
Year 5 Revenue Growth0.83%
Year 7 Revenue Growth1.30%
Year 10 Revenue Growth2.00%
Terminal Growth Rate2.00%
Margin & Efficiency
Current EBIT Margin29.63%
Tax Rate30.00%
Historical Capex / Rev14.03%
Terminal Capex / Rev5.50%
NWC / Revenue0.23%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 14x EV/EBITDA (Energy sector)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.