CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.CRWDNASDAQ

Overview Intelligence Charts News Fundamentals Key Metrics TTM Financials Earnings Growth Rating Analysts Institutional Peers Historical

DCF Valuation

DCF Valuation Summary

Strong Sell

Fair Value: $222.90 per share(market-calibrated)

-42.1%

Upside to Fair Value

Current

$384.86

Pure Model

$168.91

Fair Value

$222.90

Bull Case

$250.42

Bear Case

$111.73

Market Reality Check

Model Terminal Growth

3.75%

Market-Implied Growth

Unreachable

Calibrated Growth

75/25 blend

Market price implies assumptions beyond model range. Fair value blends 75% model / 25% market price.

What's Driving This Ratingfor CRWD

✓

CapEx already efficient

CapEx at 5.13% of revenue is already at or below sector maintenance level. No normalization needed — cash conversion is already strong.

↑

Margin expansion modeled

Current EBIT margin is 18.52% — below the sector mature average of 25.00%. Model expands margins as the business scales and operating leverage kicks in. Year 10 EBIT reaches $3.7B (22.88% margin).

↑

Strong near-term revenue growth

Analyst consensus projects 21.51% revenue growth in Year 1, fading to 19.43% by Year 5 and 3.75% by Year 10. Revenue reaches $16.1B by Year 10 (vs $4.0B today).

↔

Perpetuity and exit methods disagree

Perpetuity growth gives $105.17/share (18.1x terminal FCF) while exit multiple gives $232.65/share (53.9x terminal FCF). The 28x EV/EBITDA exit reflects current market multiples, while the perpetuity method with 3.75% growth is more conservative. The base case averages both methods.

⚠

Market price exceeds model's maximum

Even with the most optimistic terminal growth the model allows, it can't reach $384.86. The market is pricing in factors beyond the DCF framework — possibly optionality, brand premium, or expectations of margin/growth inflection not yet in analyst estimates.

→

Moderate cash flow conversion

Year 10 FCF/EBITDA conversion is 51.95% — acceptable but leaves room for improvement. High reinvestment needs consume a meaningful portion of operating cash flow.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

Cost of Equity (CAPM)

Risk-Free Rate (Rf)4.50%

Beta (β)1.12

Market Risk Premium4.50%

*Using current implied premium (4.5% per Damodaran 2026), not historical (6.5%)

Cost of Equity (Re)9.56%

Cost of Debt

Pre-tax Cost of Debt2.64%

Tax Rate30.00%

After-tax Cost of Debt1.85%

Equity Weight (E/V)99.17%

Debt Weight (D/V)0.83%

WACC Calculation

WACC = (E/V × Re) + (D/V × Rd × (1-Tc))

WACC = (99.17% × 9.56%) + (0.83% × 1.85%)

= 9.49%

10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)

Year	Year 1	Year 3	Year 5	Year 7	Year 10
Revenue	$4.8B	$7.1B	$10.1B	$13.2B	$16.1B
EBIT	$890M	$1.3B	$1.9B	$2.8B	$3.7B
Tax	$267M	$395M	$558M	$828M	$1.1B
NOPAT	$623M	$922M	$1.3B	$1.9B	$2.6B
+ Depreciation	$137M	$202M	$286M	$376M	$459M
- Capex	$247M	$365M	$516M	$679M	$829M
- Δ NWC	$85M	$125M	$164M	$154M	$58M
Free Cash Flow	$428M	$634M	$909M	$1.5B	$2.2B
Discount Factor	0.913	0.762	0.635	0.530	0.404
Present Value	$390M	$483M	$578M	$781M	$871M

FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital

Terminal Value Calculation

Perpetuity Growth Method

Year 10 FCF$2.2B

Terminal Growth Rate3.75%

WACC9.49%

TV = FCF₁₀ × (1+g) / (WACC-g)

Terminal Value$39.0B

PV of Terminal Value$15.7B

Exit Multiple Method

Year 10 EBITDA$4.2B

Exit Multiple (EV/EBITDA)28.0x

TV = EBITDA₁₀ × Exit Multiple

Terminal Value$116.2B

PV of Terminal Value$46.9B

Valuation Summary

Perpetuity Growth Method

PV of Projected FCFs$6.5B

PV of Terminal Value$15.7B

Enterprise Value$22.2B

(-) Net Debt-$3.5B

Equity Value$25.7B

Shares Outstanding245M

Price per Share$105.17

Exit Multiple Method

PV of Projected FCFs$6.5B

PV of Terminal Value$46.9B

Enterprise Value$53.4B

(-) Net Debt-$3.5B

Equity Value$56.9B

Shares Outstanding245M

Price per Share$232.65

Pure Model Fair Value

$168.91

Average of perpetuity growth and exit multiple methods (before market calibration)

Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share

WACC ↓ / Growth →	2.75%	3.25%	3.75%	4.25%	4.75%
7.49%	$205.80	$211.51	$218.74	$228.21	$241.12
8.49%	$182.45	$185.96	$190.21	$195.46	$202.12
9.49%	$163.88	$166.19	$168.91	$172.14	$176.06
10.49%	$148.54	$150.14	$151.98	$154.11	$156.61
11.49%	$135.54	$136.68	$137.98	$139.45	$141.15

How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Scenario Analysis

Bear Case

$111.73

-71.0% vs current

• -25% vs analyst consensus
• Terminal growth: 3.3%
• Beta: 1.41

Base Case

$168.91

-56.1% vs current

• Analyst consensus
• Terminal growth: 3.8%
• Beta: 1.12

Bull Case

$250.42

-34.9% vs current

• +25% vs analyst consensus
• Terminal growth: 4.3%
• Beta: 0.96

Key Assumptions & Drivers✓ Using Analyst Consensus Estimates• Technology Sector

Growth Assumptions (Select Years)

Year 1 Revenue Growth21.51%

Year 3 Revenue Growth21.41%

Year 5 Revenue Growth19.43%

Year 7 Revenue Growth13.16%

Year 10 Revenue Growth3.75%

Terminal Growth Rate3.75%

Margin & Efficiency

Current EBIT Margin18.52%

Terminal EBIT Margin25.00%

Tax Rate30.00%

Historical Capex / Rev5.13%

NWC / Revenue10.00%

Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.

Institutional-Grade Methodology

Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta

Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 28x EV/EBITDA (Technology sector)

This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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