10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)
| Year | Year 1 | Year 3 | Year 5 | Year 7 | Year 10 |
|---|
| Revenue | $14.5B | $15.8B | $17.5B | $18.9B | $20.5B |
| EBIT | $5.6B | $6.1B | $6.8B | $5.7B | $4.7B |
| Tax | $1.3B | $1.4B | $1.6B | $1.3B | $1.1B |
| NOPAT | $4.3B | $4.7B | $5.2B | $4.4B | $3.6B |
| + Depreciation | $1.6B | $1.8B | $2.0B | $2.1B | $2.3B |
| - Capex | $2.4B | $2.6B | $2.9B | $3.1B | $3.4B |
| - Δ NWC | $31M | $47M | $63M | $54M | $35M |
| Free Cash Flow | $3.5B | $3.8B | $4.2B | $3.3B | $2.5B |
| Discount Factor | 0.918 | 0.774 | 0.653 | 0.551 | 0.426 |
| Present Value | $3.2B | $3.0B | $2.8B | $1.8B | $1.1B |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 1.25% | 1.75% | 2.25% | 2.75% | 3.25% |
|---|
| 6.90% | $14.62 | $15.87 | $17.39 | $19.28 | $21.68 |
| 7.90% | $11.87 | $12.69 | $13.65 | $14.80 | $16.20 |
| 8.90% | $9.92 | $10.48 | $11.13 | $11.88 | $12.76 |
| 9.90% | $8.48 | $8.88 | $9.33 | $9.85 | $10.45 |
| 10.90% | $7.38 | $7.68 | $8.01 | $8.38 | $8.80 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers✓ Using Analyst Consensus Estimates• Industrials Sector
Growth Assumptions (Select Years)
Year 1 Revenue Growth2.79%
Year 3 Revenue Growth4.01%
Year 5 Revenue Growth4.86%
Year 7 Revenue Growth3.81%
Year 10 Revenue Growth2.25%
Terminal Growth Rate2.25%
Margin & Efficiency
EBIT Margin38.87%
Tax Rate23.35%
Capex / Revenue16.48%
NWC / Revenue7.77%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 18x EV/EBITDA (S&P 500: 22x P/E)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.