10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)
| Year | Year 1 | Year 3 | Year 5 | Year 7 | Year 10 |
|---|
| Revenue | $11.2B | $12.9B | $14.3B | $15.7B | $17.1B |
| EBIT | $3.0B | $3.4B | $3.8B | $4.2B | $4.6B |
| Tax | $599M | $688M | $766M | $839M | $915M |
| NOPAT | $2.4B | $2.8B | $3.1B | $3.4B | $3.7B |
| + Depreciation | $462M | $531M | $591M | $648M | $706M |
| - Capex | $332M | $382M | $425M | $466M | $508M |
| - Δ NWC | $51M | $50M | $46M | $38M | $22M |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.5B | $2.9B | $3.2B | $3.5B | $3.8B |
| Discount Factor | 0.921 | 0.781 | 0.662 | 0.561 | 0.438 |
| Present Value | $2.3B | $2.2B | $2.1B | $2.0B | $1.7B |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 1.25% | 1.75% | 2.25% | 2.75% | 3.25% |
|---|
| 6.61% | $159.58 | $164.72 | $171.04 | $179.00 | $189.32 |
| 7.61% | $140.30 | $143.60 | $147.52 | $152.25 | $158.05 |
| 8.61% | $125.04 | $127.28 | $129.88 | $132.92 | $136.52 |
| 9.61% | $112.52 | $114.10 | $115.91 | $117.97 | $120.36 |
| 10.61% | $101.98 | $103.14 | $104.44 | $105.90 | $107.57 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers✓ Using Analyst Consensus Estimates• Industrials Sector
Growth Assumptions (Select Years)
Year 1 Revenue Growth8.33%
Year 3 Revenue Growth6.97%
Year 5 Revenue Growth5.68%
Year 7 Revenue Growth4.31%
Year 10 Revenue Growth2.25%
Terminal Growth Rate2.25%
Margin & Efficiency
Current EBIT Margin26.78%
Tax Rate19.96%
Historical Capex / Rev2.97%
NWC / Revenue5.94%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 18x EV/EBITDA (Industrials sector)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.