5-Year Free Cash Flow Projections
| Year | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|
| Revenue | $22.4B | $23.6B | $25.2B | $26.4B | $27.2B |
| EBIT | $3.5B | $3.7B | $3.9B | $4.1B | $4.2B |
| Tax | $1.4B | $1.5B | $1.6B | $1.6B | $1.7B |
| NOPAT | $2.1B | $2.2B | $2.4B | $2.5B | $2.5B |
| + Depreciation | $582M | $613M | $654M | $686M | $706M |
| - Capex | $321M | $339M | $361M | $379M | $390M |
| - Δ NWC | $272M | $256M | $332M | $257M | $167M |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.1B | $2.2B | $2.3B | $2.5B | $2.7B |
| Discount Factor | 0.922 | 0.850 | 0.784 | 0.723 | 0.667 |
| Present Value | $1.9B | $1.9B | $1.8B | $1.8B | $1.8B |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% | 4.00% |
|---|
| 6.45% | $113.83 | $126.23 | $142.23 | $163.65 | $193.81 |
| 7.45% | $93.09 | $100.88 | $110.42 | $122.36 | $137.78 |
| 8.45% | $78.95 | $84.22 | $90.47 | $97.97 | $107.16 |
| 9.45% | $68.73 | $72.50 | $76.85 | $81.94 | $87.96 |
| 10.45% | $61.04 | $63.84 | $67.02 | $70.65 | $74.85 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers
Growth Assumptions
Year 1 Revenue Growth6.12%
Year 2 Revenue Growth5.42%
Year 3 Revenue Growth6.68%
Year 4 Revenue Growth4.84%
Year 5 Revenue Growth3.00%
Terminal Growth Rate3.00%
Margin & Efficiency
EBIT Margin15.58%
Tax Rate39.94%
Capex / Revenue1.43%
NWC / Revenue21.07%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 18x EV/EBITDA (S&P 500: 22x P/E)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.