DoorDash, Inc.DASHNYSE

Overview Intelligence Charts News Fundamentals Key Metrics TTM Financials Earnings Growth Rating Analysts Institutional Peers Historical

DCF Valuation

DCF Valuation Summary

Strong Buy

Fair Value: $284.27 per share(market-calibrated)

+61.1%

Upside to Fair Value

Current

$176.41

Pure Model

$289.74

Fair Value

$284.27

Bull Case

$430.37

Bear Case

$186.15

Market Reality Check

Model Terminal Growth

3.00%

Market-Implied Growth

0.50%

Calibrated Growth

2.13%

Fair value uses 65% model / 35% market-implied terminal growth. Pure model: $289.74.

What's Driving This Ratingfor DASH

✓

CapEx already efficient

CapEx at 2.18% of revenue is already at or below sector maintenance level. No normalization needed — cash conversion is already strong.

✓

Premium margins already priced in

EBIT margin of 26.05% is already well above sector average. The model holds this level — there's limited room for margin expansion to drive upside. Valuation depends primarily on revenue growth.

↑

Strong near-term revenue growth

Analyst consensus projects 30.23% revenue growth in Year 1, fading to 16.33% by Year 5 and 3.00% by Year 10. Revenue reaches $50.7B by Year 10 (vs $13.7B today).

↔

Perpetuity and exit methods disagree

Perpetuity growth gives $222.33/share (11.5x terminal FCF) while exit multiple gives $357.15/share (25.1x terminal FCF). The 22x EV/EBITDA exit reflects current market multiples, while the perpetuity method with 3.00% growth is more conservative. The base case averages both methods.

🎯

Market pricing in lower growth than model

The market implies only 0.50% perpetual growth — 250bps below the model's 3.00%. This suggests the market sees headwinds or risks not in the model.

✓

Strong cash flow conversion

Year 10 FCF/EBITDA conversion of 87.67% indicates efficient cash generation. FCF reaches $13.1B by Year 10 (25.83% FCF margin).

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

Cost of Equity (CAPM)

Risk-Free Rate (Rf)4.50%

Beta (β)1.79

Market Risk Premium4.50%

*Using current implied premium (4.5% per Damodaran 2026), not historical (6.5%)

Cost of Equity (Re)12.58%

Cost of Debt

Pre-tax Cost of Debt0.09%

Tax Rate5.00%

After-tax Cost of Debt0.08%

Equity Weight (E/V)95.26%

Debt Weight (D/V)4.74%

WACC Calculation

WACC = (E/V × Re) + (D/V × Rd × (1-Tc))

WACC = (95.26% × 12.58%) + (4.74% × 0.08%)

= 11.98%

10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)

Year	Year 1	Year 3	Year 5	Year 7	Year 10
Revenue	$17.9B	$25.3B	$34.1B	$43.0B	$50.7B
EBIT	$4.7B	$6.6B	$8.9B	$11.2B	$13.2B
Tax	$233M	$329M	$444M	$560M	$661M
NOPAT	$4.4B	$6.2B	$8.4B	$10.6B	$12.6B
+ Depreciation	$610M	$862M	$1.2B	$1.5B	$1.7B
- Capex	$389M	$550M	$743M	$937M	$1.1B
- Δ NWC	$219M	$205M	$252M	$225M	$78M
Free Cash Flow	$4.4B	$6.4B	$8.6B	$11.0B	$13.1B
Discount Factor	0.893	0.712	0.568	0.453	0.322
Present Value	$3.9B	$4.5B	$4.9B	$5.0B	$4.2B

FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital

Terminal Value Calculation

Perpetuity Growth Method

Year 10 FCF$13.1B

Terminal Growth Rate3.00%

WACC11.98%

TV = FCF₁₀ × (1+g) / (WACC-g)

Terminal Value$150.2B

PV of Terminal Value$48.4B

Exit Multiple Method

Year 10 EBITDA$14.9B

Exit Multiple (EV/EBITDA)22.0x

TV = EBITDA₁₀ × Exit Multiple

Terminal Value$328.7B

PV of Terminal Value$106.0B

Valuation Summary

Perpetuity Growth Method

PV of Projected FCFs$45.9B

PV of Terminal Value$48.4B

Enterprise Value$94.3B

(-) Net Debt-$627M

Equity Value$94.9B

Shares Outstanding427M

Price per Share$222.33

Exit Multiple Method

PV of Projected FCFs$45.9B

PV of Terminal Value$106.0B

Enterprise Value$151.9B

(-) Net Debt-$627M

Equity Value$152.5B

Shares Outstanding427M

Price per Share$357.15

Pure Model Fair Value

$289.74

Average of perpetuity growth and exit multiple methods (before market calibration)

Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share

WACC ↓ / Growth →	2.00%	2.50%	3.00%	3.50%	4.00%
9.98%	$344.71	$350.16	$356.39	$363.58	$371.97
10.98%	$311.65	$315.59	$320.02	$325.04	$330.78
11.98%	$283.57	$286.49	$289.74	$293.38	$297.46
12.98%	$259.34	$261.56	$264.00	$266.70	$269.70
13.98%	$238.20	$239.91	$241.79	$243.84	$246.09

How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Scenario Analysis

Bear Case

$186.15

5.5% vs current

• -25% vs analyst consensus
• Terminal growth: 2.5%
• Beta: 2.24

Base Case

$289.74

64.2% vs current

• Analyst consensus
• Terminal growth: 3.0%
• Beta: 1.79

Bull Case

$430.37

144.0% vs current

• +25% vs analyst consensus
• Terminal growth: 3.5%
• Beta: 1.53

Key Assumptions & Drivers✓ Using Analyst Consensus Estimates• Communication Services Sector

Growth Assumptions (Select Years)

Year 1 Revenue Growth30.23%

Year 3 Revenue Growth18.18%

Year 5 Revenue Growth16.33%

Year 7 Revenue Growth11.00%

Year 10 Revenue Growth3.00%

Terminal Growth Rate3.00%

Margin & Efficiency

Current EBIT Margin26.05%

Tax Rate5.00%

Historical Capex / Rev2.18%

NWC / Revenue5.27%

Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.

Institutional-Grade Methodology

Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta

Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 22x EV/EBITDA (Communication Services sector)

This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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