5-Year Free Cash Flow Projections
| Year | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|
| Revenue | $7.1B | $7.4B | $7.7B | $7.9B | $8.2B |
| EBIT | $826M | $857M | $890M | $921M | $949M |
| Tax | $421M | $437M | $454M | $470M | $484M |
| NOPAT | $405M | $420M | $436M | $451M | $465M |
| + Depreciation | $1.1B | $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.2B | $1.2B |
| - Capex | $657M | $682M | $708M | $733M | $755M |
| - Δ NWC | $118M | $126M | $130M | $120M | $109M |
| Free Cash Flow | $716M | $741M | $769M | $810M | $849M |
| Discount Factor | 0.915 | 0.837 | 0.766 | 0.701 | 0.642 |
| Present Value | $655M | $620M | $589M | $568M | $545M |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% | 4.00% |
|---|
| 7.28% | $28.92 | $31.96 | $35.71 | $40.44 | $46.62 |
| 8.28% | $23.47 | $25.51 | $27.93 | $30.86 | $34.47 |
| 9.28% | $19.57 | $21.01 | $22.68 | $24.65 | $26.98 |
| 10.28% | $16.65 | $17.71 | $18.93 | $20.32 | $21.93 |
| 11.28% | $14.39 | $15.20 | $16.11 | $17.14 | $18.31 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers
Growth Assumptions
Year 1 Revenue Growth3.75%
Year 2 Revenue Growth3.85%
Year 3 Revenue Growth3.85%
Year 4 Revenue Growth3.43%
Year 5 Revenue Growth3.00%
Terminal Growth Rate3.00%
Margin & Efficiency
EBIT Margin11.62%
Tax Rate51.00%
Capex / Revenue9.24%
NWC / Revenue45.89%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 18x EV/EBITDA (S&P 500: 22x P/E)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.