5-Year Free Cash Flow Projections
| Year | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|
| Revenue | $40.1B | $43.8B | $49.0B | $52.6B | $54.2B |
| EBIT | $8.9B | $9.8B | $10.9B | $11.7B | $12.1B |
| Tax | $1.8B | $2.0B | $2.2B | $2.4B | $2.4B |
| NOPAT | $7.1B | $7.8B | $8.7B | $9.4B | $9.7B |
| + Depreciation | $1.8B | $2.0B | $2.3B | $2.4B | $2.5B |
| - Capex | $3.6B | $3.9B | $4.4B | $4.7B | $4.8B |
| - Δ NWC | -$3.5B | $2.8B | $3.9B | $2.8B | $1.2B |
| Free Cash Flow | $8.9B | $3.1B | $2.7B | $4.4B | $6.1B |
| Discount Factor | 0.932 | 0.869 | 0.810 | 0.756 | 0.705 |
| Present Value | $8.3B | $2.7B | $2.2B | $3.3B | $4.3B |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% | 4.00% |
|---|
| 5.26% | $421.17 | $524.10 | $672.66 | $769.19 | $752.45 |
| 6.26% | $272.56 | $328.20 | $400.92 | $500.03 | $643.08 |
| 7.26% | $181.36 | $215.63 | $257.96 | $311.55 | $381.60 |
| 8.26% | $120.00 | $142.92 | $170.21 | $203.23 | $244.01 |
| 9.26% | $76.10 | $92.33 | $111.15 | $133.25 | $159.55 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers
Growth Assumptions
Year 1 Revenue Growth-10.30%
Year 2 Revenue Growth9.22%
Year 3 Revenue Growth11.95%
Year 4 Revenue Growth7.47%
Year 5 Revenue Growth3.00%
Terminal Growth Rate3.00%
Margin & Efficiency
EBIT Margin22.30%
Tax Rate20.12%
Capex / Revenue8.90%
NWC / Revenue75.39%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 18x EV/EBITDA (S&P 500: 22x P/E)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.