5-Year Free Cash Flow Projections
| Year | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|
| Revenue | $101.2B | $105.5B | $110.0B | $114.6B | $115.9B |
| EBIT | $9.5B | $9.9B | $10.3B | $10.8B | $10.9B |
| Tax | $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.2B | $1.3B | $1.3B |
| NOPAT | $8.4B | $8.7B | $9.1B | $9.5B | $9.6B |
| + Depreciation | $5.6B | $5.8B | $6.0B | $6.3B | $6.4B |
| - Capex | $5.8B | $6.0B | $6.3B | $6.5B | $6.6B |
| - Δ NWC | $128M | $82M | $84M | $88M | $25M |
| Free Cash Flow | $8.0B | $8.4B | $8.8B | $9.1B | $9.3B |
| Discount Factor | 0.914 | 0.836 | 0.764 | 0.698 | 0.638 |
| Present Value | $7.3B | $7.0B | $6.7B | $6.4B | $5.9B |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% | 4.00% |
|---|
| 7.39% | $65.20 | $72.55 | $81.59 | $92.94 | $107.64 |
| 8.39% | $51.89 | $56.85 | $62.74 | $69.83 | $78.53 |
| 9.39% | $42.30 | $45.84 | $49.93 | $54.72 | $60.39 |
| 10.39% | $35.10 | $37.72 | $40.70 | $44.11 | $48.06 |
| 11.39% | $29.51 | $31.52 | $33.77 | $36.30 | $39.17 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers✓ Using Analyst Consensus Estimates
Growth Assumptions
Year 1 Revenue Growth7.16%
Year 2 Revenue Growth4.27%
Year 3 Revenue Growth4.22%
Year 4 Revenue Growth4.20%
Year 5 Revenue Growth1.16%
Terminal Growth Rate3.00%
Margin & Efficiency
EBIT Margin9.38%
Tax Rate11.90%
Capex / Revenue5.70%
NWC / Revenue1.89%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 18x EV/EBITDA (S&P 500: 22x P/E)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.