10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)
| Year | Year 1 | Year 3 | Year 5 | Year 7 | Year 10 |
|---|
| Revenue | $5.2B | $5.7B | $6.2B | $6.5B | $7.1B |
| EBIT | $961M | $1.0B | $1.1B | $1.1B | $1.1B |
| Tax | $184M | $199M | $209M | $208M | $214M |
| NOPAT | $777M | $842M | $883M | $881M | $907M |
| + Depreciation | $86M | $93M | $101M | $107M | $116M |
| - Capex | $109M | $118M | $128M | $135M | $147M |
| - Δ NWC | $36M | $16M | $11M | $12M | $13M |
| Free Cash Flow | $718M | $802M | $845M | $841M | $864M |
| Discount Factor | 0.927 | 0.798 | 0.686 | 0.590 | 0.471 |
| Present Value | $666M | $640M | $580M | $496M | $407M |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 1.75% | 2.25% | 2.75% | 3.25% | 3.75% |
|---|
| 5.82% | $367.59 | $419.07 | $487.32 | $582.14 | $722.80 |
| 6.82% | $272.42 | $302.08 | $339.03 | $386.33 | $449.04 |
| 7.82% | $210.69 | $229.38 | $251.76 | $279.03 | $313.01 |
| 8.82% | $168.03 | $180.55 | $195.13 | $212.33 | $232.92 |
| 9.82% | $137.19 | $145.96 | $155.97 | $167.50 | $180.92 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers• Consumer Cyclical Sector
Growth Assumptions (Select Years)
Year 1 Revenue Growth11.14%
Year 3 Revenue Growth4.25%
Year 5 Revenue Growth2.75%
Year 7 Revenue Growth2.75%
Year 10 Revenue Growth2.75%
Terminal Growth Rate2.75%
Margin & Efficiency
EBIT Margin18.37%
Tax Rate19.11%
Capex / Revenue2.08%
NWC / Revenue6.87%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 18x EV/EBITDA (S&P 500: 22x P/E)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.