5-Year Free Cash Flow Projections
| Year | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|
| Revenue | $14.0B | $14.4B | $14.6B | $15.9B | $16.4B |
| EBIT | $1.9B | $2.0B | $2.0B | $2.2B | $2.3B |
| Tax | $423M | $435M | $442M | $482M | $496M |
| NOPAT | $1.5B | $1.6B | $1.6B | $1.7B | $1.8B |
| + Depreciation | $736M | $758M | $770M | $838M | $863M |
| - Capex | $603M | $620M | $630M | $686M | $707M |
| - Δ NWC | $18M | $23M | $13M | $73M | $27M |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.6B | $1.7B | $1.7B | $1.8B | $1.9B |
| Discount Factor | 0.948 | 0.898 | 0.852 | 0.807 | 0.765 |
| Present Value | $1.6B | $1.5B | $1.5B | $1.5B | $1.5B |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% | 4.00% |
|---|
| 3.50% | $852.32 | $834.70 | $817.49 | $800.69 | $784.28 |
| 4.50% | $648.30 | $834.70 | $817.49 | $800.69 | $784.28 |
| 5.50% | $416.20 | $501.64 | $621.26 | $800.69 | $784.28 |
| 6.50% | $288.29 | $336.28 | $397.99 | $480.27 | $595.46 |
| 7.50% | $207.69 | $237.95 | $274.94 | $321.17 | $380.62 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers
Growth Assumptions
Year 1 Revenue Growth2.35%
Year 2 Revenue Growth2.89%
Year 3 Revenue Growth1.60%
Year 4 Revenue Growth8.88%
Year 5 Revenue Growth3.00%
Terminal Growth Rate3.00%
Margin & Efficiency
EBIT Margin13.93%
Tax Rate21.76%
Capex / Revenue4.32%
NWC / Revenue5.61%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 18x EV/EBITDA (S&P 500: 22x P/E)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.