10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)
| Year | Year 1 | Year 3 | Year 5 | Year 7 | Year 10 |
|---|
| Revenue | $17.3B | $18.9B | $20.0B | $20.9B | $22.4B |
| EBIT | $4.3B | $4.7B | $5.0B | $5.2B | $5.6B |
| Tax | $767M | $840M | $888M | $928M | $992M |
| NOPAT | $3.5B | $3.9B | $4.1B | $4.3B | $4.6B |
| + Depreciation | $927M | $1.0B | $1.1B | $1.1B | $1.2B |
| - Capex | $897M | $932M | $932M | $919M | $894M |
| - Δ NWC | $89M | $61M | $33M | $34M | $36M |
| Free Cash Flow | $3.5B | $3.9B | $4.2B | $4.4B | $4.8B |
| Discount Factor | 0.923 | 0.787 | 0.671 | 0.572 | 0.450 |
| Present Value | $3.2B | $3.1B | $2.8B | $2.5B | $2.2B |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 1.25% | 1.75% | 2.25% | 2.75% | 3.25% |
|---|
| 6.31% | $258.19 | $268.84 | $282.11 | $299.10 | $321.63 |
| 7.31% | $222.84 | $229.55 | $237.57 | $247.36 | $259.55 |
| 8.31% | $195.49 | $199.98 | $205.20 | $211.37 | $218.76 |
| 9.31% | $173.42 | $176.56 | $180.15 | $184.28 | $189.09 |
| 10.31% | $155.08 | $157.36 | $159.91 | $162.80 | $166.11 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers• Basic Materials Sector
Growth Assumptions (Select Years)
Year 1 Revenue Growth7.48%
Year 3 Revenue Growth4.55%
Year 5 Revenue Growth2.25%
Year 7 Revenue Growth2.25%
Year 10 Revenue Growth2.25%
Terminal Growth Rate2.25%
Margin & Efficiency
Current EBIT Margin24.87%
Tax Rate17.84%
Historical Capex / Rev5.19%
Terminal Capex / Rev4.00%
NWC / Revenue7.41%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 14x EV/EBITDA (Basic Materials sector)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.