10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)
| Year | Year 1 | Year 3 | Year 5 | Year 7 | Year 10 |
|---|
| Revenue | $17.3B | $18.9B | $20.0B | $20.9B | $22.3B |
| EBIT | $2.5B | $2.8B | $2.9B | $3.1B | $3.3B |
| Tax | $455M | $497M | $525M | $549M | $587M |
| NOPAT | $2.1B | $2.3B | $2.4B | $2.5B | $2.7B |
| + Depreciation | $957M | $1.0B | $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.2B |
| - Capex | $777M | $849M | $897M | $938M | $1.0B |
| - Δ NWC | $85M | $57M | $31M | $33M | $35M |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.2B | $2.4B | $2.6B | $2.7B | $2.9B |
| Discount Factor | 0.923 | 0.786 | 0.669 | 0.570 | 0.448 |
| Present Value | $2.0B | $1.9B | $1.7B | $1.5B | $1.3B |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 5.55% | 6.05% | 6.55% | 7.05% | 7.55% |
|---|
| 6.37% | $291.36 | $280.71 | $270.55 | $260.83 | $251.56 |
| 7.37% | $291.36 | $280.71 | $270.55 | $260.83 | $251.56 |
| 8.37% | $202.29 | $240.41 | $270.55 | $260.83 | $251.56 |
| 9.37% | $146.10 | $164.19 | $188.69 | $223.78 | $251.56 |
| 10.37% | $114.10 | $124.24 | $137.04 | $153.70 | $176.27 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers• Basic Materials Sector
Growth Assumptions (Select Years)
Year 1 Revenue Growth7.46%
Year 3 Revenue Growth4.41%
Year 5 Revenue Growth2.25%
Year 7 Revenue Growth2.25%
Year 10 Revenue Growth2.25%
Terminal Growth Rate6.55%
Margin & Efficiency
EBIT Margin14.75%
Tax Rate17.84%
Capex / Revenue4.49%
NWC / Revenue7.09%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 18x EV/EBITDA (S&P 500: 22x P/E)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.