10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)
| Year | Year 1 | Year 3 | Year 5 | Year 7 | Year 10 |
|---|
| Revenue | $9.7B | $10.4B | $11.9B | $12.5B | $13.3B |
| EBIT | $1.9B | $2.1B | $2.3B | $2.5B | $2.6B |
| Tax | $416M | $449M | $513M | $537M | $572M |
| NOPAT | $1.5B | $1.6B | $1.8B | $1.9B | $2.0B |
| + Depreciation | $2.1B | $2.3B | $2.6B | $2.7B | $2.9B |
| - Capex | $1.9B | $1.7B | $1.6B | $1.3B | $732M |
| - Δ NWC | $27M | $32M | $13M | $13M | $12M |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.6B | $2.1B | $2.8B | $3.3B | $4.2B |
| Discount Factor | 0.934 | 0.816 | 0.712 | 0.622 | 0.507 |
| Present Value | $1.5B | $1.7B | $2.0B | $2.1B | $2.1B |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 1.00% | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% |
|---|
| 5.02% | $111.43 | $119.04 | $129.17 | $143.31 | $164.43 |
| 6.02% | $92.14 | $96.50 | $101.94 | $108.93 | $118.23 |
| 7.02% | $78.28 | $81.02 | $84.30 | $88.31 | $93.31 |
| 8.02% | $67.66 | $69.49 | $71.62 | $74.14 | $77.16 |
| 9.02% | $59.17 | $60.44 | $61.90 | $63.58 | $65.54 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers✓ Using Analyst Consensus Estimates• Energy Sector
Growth Assumptions (Select Years)
Year 1 Revenue Growth6.49%
Year 3 Revenue Growth7.00%
Year 5 Revenue Growth2.50%
Year 7 Revenue Growth2.30%
Year 10 Revenue Growth2.00%
Terminal Growth Rate2.00%
Margin & Efficiency
Current EBIT Margin19.64%
Terminal EBIT Margin34.70%
Tax Rate21.89%
Historical Capex / Rev19.88%
Terminal Capex / Rev5.50%
NWC / Revenue4.61%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 14x EV/EBITDA (Energy sector)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.