5-Year Free Cash Flow Projections
| Year | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|
| Revenue | $5.4B | $5.5B | $5.7B | $5.9B | $6.1B |
| EBIT | $706M | $727M | $749M | $771M | $794M |
| Tax | $59M | $61M | $63M | $64M | $66M |
| NOPAT | $647M | $666M | $686M | $707M | $728M |
| + Depreciation | $1.8B | $1.8B | $1.9B | $2.0B | $2.0B |
| - Capex | $1.6B | $1.6B | $1.7B | $1.7B | $1.8B |
| - Δ NWC | $4M | $4M | $4M | $4M | $4M |
| Free Cash Flow | $838M | $863M | $889M | $915M | $943M |
| Discount Factor | 0.938 | 0.880 | 0.825 | 0.774 | 0.726 |
| Present Value | $786M | $759M | $733M | $709M | $685M |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% | 4.00% |
|---|
| 4.61% | $46.95 | $60.99 | $63.87 | $62.47 | $61.11 |
| 5.61% | $29.02 | $35.64 | $44.81 | $58.32 | $61.11 |
| 6.61% | $18.95 | $22.73 | $27.56 | $33.94 | $42.77 |
| 7.61% | $12.54 | $14.94 | $17.87 | $21.51 | $26.17 |
| 8.61% | $8.11 | $9.76 | $11.70 | $14.02 | $16.84 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers
Growth Assumptions
Year 1 Revenue Growth3.00%
Year 2 Revenue Growth3.00%
Year 3 Revenue Growth3.00%
Year 4 Revenue Growth3.00%
Year 5 Revenue Growth3.00%
Terminal Growth Rate3.00%
Margin & Efficiency
EBIT Margin13.12%
Tax Rate8.36%
Capex / Revenue29.76%
NWC / Revenue2.32%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 18x EV/EBITDA (S&P 500: 22x P/E)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.