10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)
| Year | Year 1 | Year 3 | Year 5 | Year 7 | Year 10 |
|---|
| Revenue | $13.8B | $15.7B | $17.8B | $19.5B | $21.1B |
| EBIT | $5.4B | $6.1B | $7.0B | $7.6B | $8.2B |
| Tax | $1.2B | $1.3B | $1.5B | $1.7B | $1.8B |
| NOPAT | $4.2B | $4.8B | $5.4B | $5.9B | $6.4B |
| + Depreciation | $2.5B | $2.8B | $3.2B | $3.5B | $3.8B |
| - Capex | $6.4B | $5.9B | $5.0B | $3.7B | $1.1B |
| - Δ NWC | $32M | $36M | $38M | $31M | $16M |
| Free Cash Flow | $188M | $1.7B | $3.6B | $5.7B | $9.2B |
| Discount Factor | 0.947 | 0.850 | 0.763 | 0.685 | 0.582 |
| Present Value | $178M | $1.4B | $2.7B | $3.9B | $5.3B |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 1.00% | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% |
|---|
| 3.56% | $448.62 | $520.62 | $508.43 | $483.96 | $460.65 |
| 4.56% | $329.18 | $361.13 | $405.56 | $471.60 | $460.65 |
| 5.56% | $257.06 | $274.30 | $296.40 | $325.72 | $366.51 |
| 6.56% | $207.36 | $217.78 | $230.49 | $246.33 | $266.63 |
| 7.56% | $170.31 | $177.09 | $185.09 | $194.67 | $206.36 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers✓ Using Analyst Consensus Estimates• Utilities Sector
Growth Assumptions (Select Years)
Year 1 Revenue Growth6.26%
Year 3 Revenue Growth6.05%
Year 5 Revenue Growth5.66%
Year 7 Revenue Growth4.19%
Year 10 Revenue Growth2.00%
Terminal Growth Rate2.00%
Margin & Efficiency
Current EBIT Margin39.00%
Tax Rate21.92%
Historical Capex / Rev46.86%
Terminal Capex / Rev5.00%
NWC / Revenue3.98%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 16x EV/EBITDA (Utilities sector)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.