Fiserv, Inc.FISVNASDAQ

Overview Intelligence Charts News Fundamentals Key Metrics Financials Growth Insiders

DCF Valuation

DCF Valuation Summary

Strong Buy

Fair Value: $549.42 per share(market-calibrated)

+777.7%

Upside to Fair Value

Current

$62.60

Pure Model

$665.74

Fair Value

$549.42

Bull Case

$728.56

Bear Case

$500.82

Market Reality Check

Model Terminal Growth

3.75%

Market-Implied Growth

0.50%

Calibrated Growth

2.61%

Fair value uses 65% model / 35% market-implied terminal growth. Pure model: $665.74.

What's Driving This Ratingfor FISV

↓

CapEx normalizing toward maintenance

Historical CapEx is 6.94% of revenue (heavy investment phase). Model fades this to 6.00% by Year 10, freeing up ~$279M in annual FCF. This is the biggest driver of long-term cash flow improvement.

✓

Premium margins already priced in

EBIT margin of 41.18% is already well above sector average. The model holds this level — there's limited room for margin expansion to drive upside. Valuation depends primarily on revenue growth.

→

Moderate revenue growth

Analyst consensus projects -5.06% revenue growth, fading to 3.75% by Year 10. Revenue reaches $29.5B (vs $21.2B today).

🎯

Market pricing in lower growth than model

The market implies only 0.50% perpetual growth — 325bps below the model's 3.75%. This suggests the market sees headwinds or risks not in the model.

✓

Strong cash flow conversion

Year 10 FCF/EBITDA conversion of 75.04% indicates efficient cash generation. FCF reaches $12.4B by Year 10 (41.91% FCF margin).

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

Cost of Equity (CAPM)

Risk-Free Rate (Rf)4.50%

Beta (β)0.76

Market Risk Premium4.50%

*Using current implied premium (4.5% per Damodaran 2026), not historical (6.5%)

Cost of Equity (Re)7.94%

Cost of Debt

Pre-tax Cost of Debt3.57%

Tax Rate18.86%

After-tax Cost of Debt2.90%

Equity Weight (E/V)54.24%

Debt Weight (D/V)45.76%

WACC Calculation

WACC = (E/V × Re) + (D/V × Rd × (1-Tc))

WACC = (54.24% × 7.94%) + (45.76% × 2.90%)

= 5.63%

10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)

Year	Year 1	Year 3	Year 5	Year 7	Year 10
Revenue	$20.1B	$21.8B	$24.0B	$26.2B	$29.5B
EBIT	$8.3B	$9.0B	$9.9B	$10.8B	$12.1B
Tax	$1.6B	$1.7B	$1.9B	$2.0B	$2.3B
NOPAT	$6.7B	$7.3B	$8.0B	$8.8B	$9.9B
+ Depreciation	$3.0B	$3.2B	$3.5B	$3.8B	$4.3B
- Capex	$1.4B	$1.5B	$1.6B	$1.7B	$1.8B
- Δ NWC	-$52M	$40M	$54M	$54M	$52M
Free Cash Flow	$8.3B	$9.0B	$9.9B	$10.9B	$12.4B
Discount Factor	0.947	0.848	0.760	0.682	0.578
Present Value	$7.9B	$7.6B	$7.5B	$7.4B	$7.1B

FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital

Terminal Value Calculation

Perpetuity Growth Method

Year 10 FCF$12.4B

Terminal Growth Rate3.75%

WACC5.63%

TV = FCF₁₀ × (1+g) / (WACC-g)

Terminal Value$641.1B

PV of Terminal Value$370.7B

Exit Multiple Method

Year 10 EBITDA$16.5B

Exit Multiple (EV/EBITDA)28.0x

TV = EBITDA₁₀ × Exit Multiple

Terminal Value$461.1B

PV of Terminal Value$266.6B

Valuation Summary

Perpetuity Growth Method

PV of Projected FCFs$75.0B

PV of Terminal Value$370.7B

Enterprise Value$445.7B

(-) Net Debt$28.2B

Equity Value$417.5B

Shares Outstanding549M

Price per Share$760.51

Exit Multiple Method

PV of Projected FCFs$75.0B

PV of Terminal Value$266.6B

Enterprise Value$341.7B

(-) Net Debt$28.2B

Equity Value$313.5B

Shares Outstanding549M

Price per Share$570.97

Pure Model Fair Value

$665.74

Average of perpetuity growth and exit multiple methods (before market calibration)

Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share

WACC ↓ / Growth →	2.75%	3.25%	3.75%	4.25%	4.75%
3.63%	$719.24	$688.07	$658.36	$630.04	$603.03
4.63%	$719.24	$688.07	$658.36	$630.04	$603.03
5.63%	$560.30	$610.44	$658.36	$630.04	$603.03
6.63%	$456.37	$480.45	$512.88	$558.95	$603.03
7.63%	$387.14	$400.72	$417.81	$439.94	$469.77

How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Scenario Analysis

Bear Case

$500.82

700.0% vs current

• -25% vs analyst consensus
• Terminal growth: 3.3%
• Beta: 0.95

Base Case

$665.74

963.5% vs current

• Analyst consensus
• Terminal growth: 3.8%
• Beta: 0.76

Bull Case

$728.56

1063.8% vs current

• +25% vs analyst consensus
• Terminal growth: 4.3%
• Beta: 0.65

Key Assumptions & Drivers✓ Using Analyst Consensus Estimates• Technology Sector

Growth Assumptions (Select Years)

Year 1 Revenue Growth-5.06%

Year 3 Revenue Growth3.91%

Year 5 Revenue Growth4.86%

Year 7 Revenue Growth4.42%

Year 10 Revenue Growth3.75%

Terminal Growth Rate3.75%

Margin & Efficiency

Current EBIT Margin41.18%

Tax Rate18.86%

Historical Capex / Rev6.94%

Terminal Capex / Rev6.00%

NWC / Revenue4.86%

Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.

Institutional-Grade Methodology

Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta

Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 28x EV/EBITDA (Technology sector)

This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Explore More

S&P 500 Screener

Filter and sort all 500 stocks

Market Movers

Today's biggest gainers and losers

Market Heatmap

Visual sector performance