10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)
| Year | Year 1 | Year 3 | Year 5 | Year 7 | Year 10 |
|---|
| Revenue | $5.3B | $6.7B | $7.3B | $7.1B | $7.3B |
| EBIT | $1.2B | $1.5B | $1.7B | $1.6B | $1.7B |
| Tax | $60M | $76M | $83M | $81M | $83M |
| NOPAT | $1.1B | $1.5B | $1.6B | $1.5B | $1.6B |
| + Depreciation | $362M | $461M | $504M | $489M | $503M |
| - Capex | $1.1B | $1.1B | $997M | $737M | $404M |
| - Δ NWC | $18M | $170M | -$69M | -$22M | $43M |
| Free Cash Flow | $426M | $613M | $1.2B | $1.3B | $1.6B |
| Discount Factor | 0.895 | 0.717 | 0.574 | 0.460 | 0.329 |
| Present Value | $381M | $439M | $666M | $602M | $540M |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 1.00% | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% |
|---|
| 9.75% | $165.79 | $168.08 | $170.67 | $173.62 | $177.00 |
| 10.75% | $151.81 | $153.51 | $155.39 | $157.51 | $159.89 |
| 11.75% | $139.90 | $141.18 | $142.59 | $144.15 | $145.89 |
| 12.75% | $129.61 | $130.59 | $131.66 | $132.84 | $134.14 |
| 13.75% | $120.62 | $121.38 | $122.22 | $123.12 | $124.12 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers✓ Using Analyst Consensus Estimates• Energy Sector
Growth Assumptions (Select Years)
Year 1 Revenue Growth1.15%
Year 3 Revenue Growth9.18%
Year 5 Revenue Growth-3.02%
Year 7 Revenue Growth-1.01%
Year 10 Revenue Growth2.00%
Terminal Growth Rate2.00%
Margin & Efficiency
Current EBIT Margin22.71%
Terminal EBIT Margin30.59%
Tax Rate5.00%
Historical Capex / Rev20.03%
Terminal Capex / Rev5.50%
NWC / Revenue30.00%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 14x EV/EBITDA (Energy sector)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.