5-Year Free Cash Flow Projections
| Year | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|
| Revenue | $5.3B | $5.7B | $6.1B | $6.3B | $6.5B |
| EBIT | $464M | $497M | $533M | $556M | $573M |
| Tax | $104M | $111M | $119M | $125M | $128M |
| NOPAT | $360M | $386M | $414M | $432M | $445M |
| + Depreciation | $209M | $223M | $240M | $250M | $258M |
| - Capex | $115M | $123M | $132M | $138M | $142M |
| - Δ NWC | $71M | $37M | $41M | $26M | $19M |
| Free Cash Flow | $383M | $449M | $480M | $517M | $541M |
| Discount Factor | 0.932 | 0.869 | 0.809 | 0.754 | 0.703 |
| Present Value | $357M | $390M | $389M | $390M | $380M |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% | 4.00% |
|---|
| 5.30% | $84.99 | $101.82 | $125.95 | $145.31 | $142.49 |
| 6.30% | $60.52 | $69.69 | $81.63 | $97.83 | $121.07 |
| 7.30% | $45.43 | $51.10 | $58.09 | $66.92 | $78.42 |
| 8.30% | $35.23 | $39.04 | $43.56 | $49.03 | $55.77 |
| 9.30% | $27.92 | $30.62 | $33.75 | $37.42 | $41.78 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers
Growth Assumptions
Year 1 Revenue Growth15.52%
Year 2 Revenue Growth7.06%
Year 3 Revenue Growth7.26%
Year 4 Revenue Growth4.35%
Year 5 Revenue Growth3.00%
Terminal Growth Rate3.00%
Margin & Efficiency
EBIT Margin8.79%
Tax Rate22.41%
Capex / Revenue2.18%
NWC / Revenue10.00%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 18x EV/EBITDA (S&P 500: 22x P/E)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.