5-Year Free Cash Flow Projections
| Year | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|
| Revenue | $9.7B | $10.2B | $10.9B | $11.6B | $11.9B |
| EBIT | $1.5B | $1.6B | $1.7B | $1.8B | $1.9B |
| Tax | $234M | $245M | $262M | $278M | $287M |
| NOPAT | $1.3B | $1.4B | $1.5B | $1.6B | $1.6B |
| + Depreciation | $1.7B | $1.7B | $1.9B | $2.0B | $2.0B |
| - Capex | $553M | $580M | $620M | $660M | $680M |
| - Δ NWC | -$7M | $8M | $12M | $12M | $6M |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.4B | $2.5B | $2.7B | $2.9B | $2.9B |
| Discount Factor | 0.948 | 0.898 | 0.852 | 0.807 | 0.765 |
| Present Value | $2.3B | $2.3B | $2.3B | $2.3B | $2.3B |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% | 4.00% |
|---|
| 3.50% | $474.08 | $464.90 | $455.93 | $447.18 | $438.63 |
| 4.50% | $367.78 | $464.90 | $455.93 | $447.18 | $438.63 |
| 5.50% | $246.85 | $291.36 | $353.69 | $447.18 | $438.63 |
| 6.50% | $180.20 | $205.21 | $237.36 | $280.23 | $340.25 |
| 7.50% | $138.21 | $153.98 | $173.25 | $197.34 | $228.31 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers
Growth Assumptions
Year 1 Revenue Growth-3.85%
Year 2 Revenue Growth4.78%
Year 3 Revenue Growth6.99%
Year 4 Revenue Growth6.37%
Year 5 Revenue Growth3.00%
Terminal Growth Rate3.00%
Margin & Efficiency
EBIT Margin15.79%
Tax Rate15.22%
Capex / Revenue5.70%
NWC / Revenue1.75%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 18x EV/EBITDA (S&P 500: 22x P/E)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.