5-Year Free Cash Flow Projections
| Year | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|
| Revenue | $7.7B | $8.4B | $8.8B | $9.2B | $9.4B |
| EBIT | $1.8B | $2.0B | $2.1B | $2.1B | $2.2B |
| Tax | $300M | $328M | $345M | $359M | $370M |
| NOPAT | $1.5B | $1.6B | $1.7B | $1.8B | $1.8B |
| + Depreciation | $195M | $213M | $224M | $234M | $241M |
| - Capex | $275M | $301M | $316M | $330M | $339M |
| - Δ NWC | $800M | $415M | $259M | $214M | $162M |
| Free Cash Flow | $612M | $1.1B | $1.4B | $1.5B | $1.6B |
| Discount Factor | 0.918 | 0.842 | 0.773 | 0.709 | 0.651 |
| Present Value | $562M | $949M | $1.1B | $1.0B | $1.0B |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% | 4.00% |
|---|
| 6.96% | $154.84 | $169.03 | $186.80 | $209.71 | $240.36 |
| 7.96% | $130.02 | $139.31 | $150.48 | $164.15 | $181.28 |
| 8.96% | $112.54 | $119.03 | $126.60 | $135.55 | $146.32 |
| 9.96% | $99.63 | $104.36 | $109.78 | $116.03 | $123.33 |
| 10.96% | $89.74 | $93.32 | $97.35 | $101.91 | $107.13 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers
Growth Assumptions
Year 1 Revenue Growth21.61%
Year 2 Revenue Growth9.23%
Year 3 Revenue Growth5.26%
Year 4 Revenue Growth4.13%
Year 5 Revenue Growth3.00%
Terminal Growth Rate3.00%
Margin & Efficiency
EBIT Margin23.40%
Tax Rate16.75%
Capex / Revenue3.59%
NWC / Revenue58.77%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 18x EV/EBITDA (S&P 500: 22x P/E)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.