10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)
| Year | Year 1 | Year 3 | Year 5 | Year 7 | Year 10 |
|---|
| Revenue | $21.7B | $23.5B | $24.9B | $25.1B | $26.3B |
| EBIT | $2.9B | $3.2B | $3.4B | $3.4B | $3.6B |
| Tax | $791M | $859M | $910M | $917M | $960M |
| NOPAT | $2.1B | $2.3B | $2.5B | $2.5B | $2.6B |
| + Depreciation | $988M | $1.1B | $1.1B | $1.1B | $1.2B |
| - Capex | $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.3B | $1.3B | $1.4B |
| - Δ NWC | -$91M | $172M | -$13M | $27M | $90M |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.1B | $2.0B | $2.3B | $2.3B | $2.3B |
| Discount Factor | 0.933 | 0.813 | 0.708 | 0.617 | 0.502 |
| Present Value | $1.9B | $1.6B | $1.6B | $1.4B | $1.2B |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 1.00% | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% |
|---|
| 5.14% | $56.85 | $59.75 | $63.59 | $68.87 | $76.63 |
| 6.14% | $48.30 | $49.99 | $52.08 | $54.75 | $58.27 |
| 7.14% | $41.93 | $43.00 | $44.27 | $45.82 | $47.75 |
| 8.14% | $36.90 | $37.62 | $38.45 | $39.43 | $40.60 |
| 9.14% | $32.77 | $33.27 | $33.84 | $34.50 | $35.27 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers✓ Using Analyst Consensus Estimates• Energy Sector
Growth Assumptions (Select Years)
Year 1 Revenue Growth-2.35%
Year 3 Revenue Growth4.37%
Year 5 Revenue Growth-0.30%
Year 7 Revenue Growth0.62%
Year 10 Revenue Growth2.00%
Terminal Growth Rate2.00%
Margin & Efficiency
Current EBIT Margin13.50%
Tax Rate27.05%
Historical Capex / Rev5.31%
NWC / Revenue17.43%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 14x EV/EBITDA (Energy sector)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.