10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)
| Year | Year 1 | Year 3 | Year 5 | Year 7 | Year 10 |
|---|
| Revenue | $21.7B | $23.4B | $24.9B | $26.0B | $27.7B |
| EBIT | $2.9B | $3.2B | $3.4B | $3.7B | $4.0B |
| Tax | $791M | $856M | $910M | $989M | $1.1B |
| NOPAT | $2.1B | $2.3B | $2.5B | $2.7B | $2.9B |
| + Depreciation | $987M | $1.1B | $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.3B |
| - Capex | $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.3B | $1.4B | $1.5B |
| - Δ NWC | -$153M | $273M | $162M | $160M | $156M |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.1B | $1.9B | $2.1B | $2.3B | $2.6B |
| Discount Factor | 0.934 | 0.814 | 0.709 | 0.618 | 0.503 |
| Present Value | $2.0B | $1.5B | $1.5B | $1.4B | $1.3B |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 1.00% | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% |
|---|
| 5.11% | $56.46 | $63.05 | $71.76 | $83.80 | $101.55 |
| 6.11% | $44.20 | $48.01 | $52.75 | $58.80 | $66.79 |
| 7.11% | $36.23 | $38.63 | $41.51 | $45.01 | $49.36 |
| 8.11% | $30.71 | $32.32 | $34.20 | $36.41 | $39.06 |
| 9.11% | $26.71 | $27.84 | $29.13 | $30.62 | $32.35 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers✓ Using Analyst Consensus Estimates• Energy Sector
Growth Assumptions (Select Years)
Year 1 Revenue Growth-2.39%
Year 3 Revenue Growth4.21%
Year 5 Revenue Growth2.30%
Year 7 Revenue Growth2.18%
Year 10 Revenue Growth2.00%
Terminal Growth Rate2.00%
Margin & Efficiency
EBIT Margin13.50%
Tax Rate27.05%
Capex / Revenue5.31%
NWC / Revenue28.81%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 18x EV/EBITDA (S&P 500: 22x P/E)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.