10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)
| Year | Year 1 | Year 3 | Year 5 | Year 7 | Year 10 |
|---|
| Revenue | $4.9B | $5.4B | $5.7B | $6.1B | $6.7B |
| EBIT | $62M | $68M | $72M | $381M | $704M |
| Tax | $130M | $144M | $152M | $807M | $1.5B |
| NOPAT | -$69M | -$76M | -$80M | -$427M | -$788M |
| + Depreciation | $536M | $590M | $625M | $671M | $733M |
| - Capex | $139M | $153M | $162M | $174M | $190M |
| - Δ NWC | $30M | $26M | $32M | $31M | $27M |
| Free Cash Flow | $298M | $335M | $350M | $40M | -$272M |
| Discount Factor | 0.948 | 0.852 | 0.765 | 0.687 | 0.585 |
| Present Value | $282M | $285M | $268M | $27M | -$159M |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 1.75% | 2.25% | 2.75% | 3.25% | 3.75% |
|---|
| 3.50% | $-73.86 | $-70.97 | $-68.21 | $-65.59 | $-63.08 |
| 4.50% | $-51.75 | $-62.31 | $-68.21 | $-65.59 | $-63.08 |
| 5.50% | $-36.33 | $-41.25 | $-47.96 | $-57.66 | $-63.08 |
| 6.50% | $-27.64 | $-30.37 | $-33.83 | $-38.35 | $-44.51 |
| 7.50% | $-22.15 | $-23.83 | $-25.86 | $-28.37 | $-31.55 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers✓ Using Analyst Consensus Estimates• Consumer Cyclical Sector
Growth Assumptions (Select Years)
Year 1 Revenue Growth4.33%
Year 3 Revenue Growth3.36%
Year 5 Revenue Growth3.96%
Year 7 Revenue Growth3.48%
Year 10 Revenue Growth2.75%
Terminal Growth Rate2.75%
Margin & Efficiency
EBIT Margin1.25%
Tax Rate211.96%
Capex / Revenue2.84%
NWC / Revenue14.89%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 18x EV/EBITDA (S&P 500: 22x P/E)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.