Hasbro, Inc.HASNASDAQ

Overview Intelligence Charts News Fundamentals Key Metrics TTM Financials Earnings Growth Rating Analysts Institutional Peers Historical

DCF Valuation

DCF Valuation Summary

Buy

Fair Value: $121.12 per share(market-calibrated)

+22.3%

Upside to Fair Value

Current

$99.05

Pure Model

$126.60

Fair Value

$121.12

Bull Case

$162.69

Bear Case

$98.45

Market Reality Check

Model Terminal Growth

3.00%

Market-Implied Growth

1.64%

Calibrated Growth

2.66%

Fair value uses 75% model / 25% market-implied terminal growth. Pure model: $126.60.

What's Driving This Ratingfor HAS

✓

CapEx already efficient

CapEx at 2.84% of revenue is already at or below sector maintenance level. No normalization needed — cash conversion is already strong.

↑

Margin expansion modeled

Current EBIT margin is 1.25% — below the sector mature average of 22.50%. Model expands margins as the business scales and operating leverage kicks in. Year 10 EBIT reaches $573M (8.48% margin).

→

Moderate revenue growth

Analyst consensus projects 4.31% revenue growth, fading to 3.00% by Year 10. Revenue reaches $6.8B (vs $4.7B today).

🎯

Market pricing in lower growth than model

The market implies only 1.64% perpetual growth — 136bps below the model's 3.00%. This suggests the market sees headwinds or risks not in the model.

✓

Strong cash flow conversion

Year 10 FCF/EBITDA conversion of 75.87% indicates efficient cash generation. FCF reaches $1.0B by Year 10 (15.28% FCF margin).

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

Cost of Equity (CAPM)

Risk-Free Rate (Rf)4.50%

Beta (β)0.55

Market Risk Premium4.50%

*Using current implied premium (4.5% per Damodaran 2026), not historical (6.5%)

Cost of Equity (Re)6.97%

Cost of Debt

Pre-tax Cost of Debt5.34%

Tax Rate21.00%

After-tax Cost of Debt4.22%

Equity Weight (E/V)80.96%

Debt Weight (D/V)19.04%

WACC Calculation

WACC = (E/V × Re) + (D/V × Rd × (1-Tc))

WACC = (80.96% × 6.97%) + (19.04% × 4.22%)

= 6.45%

10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)

Year	Year 1	Year 3	Year 5	Year 7	Year 10
Revenue	$4.9B	$5.4B	$5.7B	$6.2B	$6.8B
EBIT	$62M	$68M	$72M	$315M	$573M
Tax	$13M	$14M	$15M	$66M	$120M
NOPAT	$49M	$54M	$57M	$249M	$453M
+ Depreciation	$572M	$634M	$667M	$717M	$788M
- Capex	$139M	$154M	$162M	$174M	$192M
- Δ NWC	$17M	$16M	$18M	$18M	$16M
Free Cash Flow	$464M	$517M	$543M	$774M	$1.0B
Discount Factor	0.939	0.829	0.732	0.646	0.535
Present Value	$436M	$429M	$398M	$500M	$553M

FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital

Terminal Value Calculation

Perpetuity Growth Method

Year 10 FCF$1.0B

Terminal Growth Rate3.00%

WACC6.45%

TV = FCF₁₀ × (1+g) / (WACC-g)

Terminal Value$30.9B

PV of Terminal Value$16.5B

Exit Multiple Method

Year 10 EBITDA$1.4B

Exit Multiple (EV/EBITDA)20.0x

TV = EBITDA₁₀ × Exit Multiple

Terminal Value$27.2B

PV of Terminal Value$14.6B

Valuation Summary

Perpetuity Growth Method

PV of Projected FCFs$4.7B

PV of Terminal Value$16.5B

Enterprise Value$21.2B

(-) Net Debt$2.5B

Equity Value$18.7B

Shares Outstanding140M

Price per Share$133.55

Exit Multiple Method

PV of Projected FCFs$4.7B

PV of Terminal Value$14.6B

Enterprise Value$19.3B

(-) Net Debt$2.5B

Equity Value$16.8B

Shares Outstanding140M

Price per Share$119.65

Pure Model Fair Value

$126.60

Average of perpetuity growth and exit multiple methods (before market calibration)

Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share

WACC ↓ / Growth →	2.00%	2.50%	3.00%	3.50%	4.00%
4.45%	$181.84	$203.56	$194.51	$185.88	$177.66
5.45%	$138.84	$150.09	$165.93	$185.88	$177.66
6.45%	$112.91	$118.89	$126.60	$136.93	$151.49
7.45%	$94.92	$98.50	$102.88	$108.38	$115.47
8.45%	$81.38	$83.69	$86.43	$89.73	$93.76

How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Scenario Analysis

Bear Case

$98.45

-0.6% vs current

• -25% vs analyst consensus
• Terminal growth: 2.5%
• Beta: 0.69

Base Case

$126.60

27.8% vs current

• Analyst consensus
• Terminal growth: 3.0%
• Beta: 0.55

Bull Case

$162.69

64.3% vs current

• +25% vs analyst consensus
• Terminal growth: 3.5%
• Beta: 0.47

Key Assumptions & Drivers✓ Using Analyst Consensus Estimates• Consumer Cyclical Sector

Growth Assumptions (Select Years)

Year 1 Revenue Growth4.31%

Year 3 Revenue Growth3.77%

Year 5 Revenue Growth3.96%

Year 7 Revenue Growth3.58%

Year 10 Revenue Growth3.00%

Terminal Growth Rate3.00%

Margin & Efficiency

Current EBIT Margin1.25%

Terminal EBIT Margin22.50%

Tax Rate21.00%

Historical Capex / Rev2.84%

NWC / Revenue8.31%

Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.

Institutional-Grade Methodology

Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta

Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 20x EV/EBITDA (Consumer Cyclical sector)

This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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