5-Year Free Cash Flow Projections
| Year | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|
| Revenue | $4.2B | $4.4B | $4.6B | $4.9B | $5.1B |
| EBIT | $1.2B | $1.2B | $1.3B | $1.4B | $1.4B |
| Tax | $200M | $210M | $220M | $233M | $240M |
| NOPAT | $982M | $1.0B | $1.1B | $1.1B | $1.2B |
| + Depreciation | $365M | $382M | $400M | $423M | $436M |
| - Capex | $151M | $158M | $166M | $175M | $180M |
| - Δ NWC | $75M | $124M | $124M | $161M | $89M |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.1B | $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.2B | $1.3B |
| Discount Factor | 0.933 | 0.871 | 0.813 | 0.759 | 0.708 |
| Present Value | $1.0B | $984M | $966M | $930M | $949M |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% | 4.00% |
|---|
| 5.15% | $167.14 | $196.05 | $238.42 | $252.09 | $247.73 |
| 6.15% | $126.11 | $141.45 | $161.66 | $189.50 | $230.29 |
| 7.15% | $101.24 | $110.59 | $122.19 | $136.96 | $156.43 |
| 8.15% | $84.65 | $90.85 | $98.26 | $107.27 | $118.44 |
| 9.15% | $72.84 | $77.21 | $82.29 | $88.27 | $95.42 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers
Growth Assumptions
Year 1 Revenue Growth3.05%
Year 2 Revenue Growth4.87%
Year 3 Revenue Growth4.63%
Year 4 Revenue Growth5.76%
Year 5 Revenue Growth3.00%
Terminal Growth Rate3.00%
Margin & Efficiency
EBIT Margin27.98%
Tax Rate16.96%
Capex / Revenue3.57%
NWC / Revenue60.29%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 18x EV/EBITDA (S&P 500: 22x P/E)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.