10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)
| Year | Year 1 | Year 3 | Year 5 | Year 7 | Year 10 |
|---|
| Revenue | $3.6B | $3.9B | $4.4B | $4.6B | $4.9B |
| EBIT | $806M | $880M | $986M | $1.0B | $1.1B |
| Tax | $191M | $209M | $234M | $245M | $262M |
| NOPAT | $615M | $671M | $752M | $787M | $841M |
| + Depreciation | $156M | $170M | $191M | $200M | $213M |
| - Capex | $74M | $81M | $91M | $95M | $101M |
| - Δ NWC | $15M | $25M | $13M | $14M | $15M |
| Free Cash Flow | $682M | $736M | $839M | $877M | $938M |
| Discount Factor | 0.924 | 0.789 | 0.674 | 0.575 | 0.454 |
| Present Value | $630M | $581M | $566M | $505M | $426M |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 1.25% | 1.75% | 2.25% | 2.75% | 3.25% |
|---|
| 6.21% | $217.33 | $225.50 | $235.74 | $248.92 | $266.56 |
| 7.21% | $189.03 | $194.13 | $200.27 | $207.78 | $217.18 |
| 8.21% | $167.01 | $170.41 | $174.38 | $179.07 | $184.72 |
| 9.21% | $149.14 | $151.51 | $154.22 | $157.35 | $161.01 |
| 10.21% | $134.22 | $135.93 | $137.86 | $140.04 | $142.54 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers• Industrials Sector
Growth Assumptions (Select Years)
Year 1 Revenue Growth3.07%
Year 3 Revenue Growth4.72%
Year 5 Revenue Growth2.25%
Year 7 Revenue Growth2.25%
Year 10 Revenue Growth2.25%
Terminal Growth Rate2.25%
Margin & Efficiency
Current EBIT Margin22.61%
Tax Rate23.73%
Historical Capex / Rev2.08%
NWC / Revenue14.05%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 18x EV/EBITDA (Industrials sector)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.