5-Year Free Cash Flow Projections
| Year | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|
| Revenue | $5.6B | $6.2B | $6.4B | $4.6B | $4.7B |
| EBIT | $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.3B | $891M | $922M |
| Tax | $248M | $275M | $285M | $202M | $209M |
| NOPAT | $846M | $936M | $970M | $689M | $713M |
| + Depreciation | $85M | $95M | $98M | $70M | $72M |
| - Capex | $99M | $109M | $113M | $80M | $83M |
| - Δ NWC | $344M | $431M | $159M | -$1.3B | $116M |
| Free Cash Flow | $489M | $491M | $796M | $2.0B | $585M |
| Discount Factor | 0.923 | 0.853 | 0.787 | 0.727 | 0.671 |
| Present Value | $451M | $418M | $627M | $1.5B | $393M |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% | 4.00% |
|---|
| 6.29% | $85.26 | $92.48 | $101.89 | $114.67 | $133.04 |
| 7.29% | $73.38 | $77.84 | $83.35 | $90.30 | $99.37 |
| 8.29% | $65.37 | $68.36 | $71.92 | $76.22 | $81.52 |
| 9.29% | $59.63 | $61.75 | $64.21 | $67.09 | $70.52 |
| 10.29% | $55.33 | $56.90 | $58.68 | $60.73 | $63.10 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers✓ Using Analyst Consensus Estimates
Growth Assumptions
Year 1 Revenue Growth9.30%
Year 2 Revenue Growth10.65%
Year 3 Revenue Growth3.54%
Year 4 Revenue Growth-28.97%
Year 5 Revenue Growth3.53%
Terminal Growth Rate3.00%
Margin & Efficiency
EBIT Margin19.48%
Tax Rate22.70%
Capex / Revenue1.76%
NWC / Revenue72.07%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 18x EV/EBITDA (S&P 500: 22x P/E)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.