Intel CorporationINTCNASDAQ

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DCF Valuation

⚠️Model Warnings

•Terminal value represents 92% of enterprise value. Valuation highly sensitive to long-term assumptions.

DCF Valuation Summary

Strong Buy

Fair Value: $68.15 per share(market-calibrated)

+58.1%

Upside to Fair Value

Current

$43.10

Pure Model

$68.37

Fair Value

$68.15

Bull Case

$94.80

Bear Case

$46.68

Market Reality Check

Model Terminal Growth

3.75%

Market-Implied Growth

3.62%

Calibrated Growth

3.70%

Fair value uses 65% model / 35% market-implied terminal growth. Pure model: $68.37.

What's Driving This Ratingfor INTC

↓

CapEx normalizing toward maintenance

Historical CapEx is 41.52% of revenue (heavy investment phase). Model fades this to 6.00% by Year 10, freeing up ~$33.1B in annual FCF. This is the biggest driver of long-term cash flow improvement.

↑

Margin expansion modeled

Current EBIT margin is 5.98% — below the sector mature average of 25.00%. Model expands margins as the business scales and operating leverage kicks in. Year 10 EBIT reaches $18.6B (20.02% margin).

→

Moderate revenue growth

Analyst consensus projects 2.00% revenue growth, fading to 3.75% by Year 10. Revenue reaches $93.1B (vs $52.9B today).

↔

Perpetuity and exit methods disagree

Perpetuity growth gives $44.35/share (19.9x terminal FCF) while exit multiple gives $92.39/share (40.2x terminal FCF). The 28x EV/EBITDA exit reflects current market multiples, while the perpetuity method with 3.75% growth is more conservative. The base case averages both methods.

✓

Model and market roughly agree

Market-implied terminal growth of 3.62% is close to the model's 3.75% (only 13bps apart). The DCF assumptions are well-aligned with how the market is pricing this stock.

✓

Strong cash flow conversion

Year 10 FCF/EBITDA conversion of 69.60% indicates efficient cash generation. FCF reaches $27.1B by Year 10 (29.08% FCF margin).

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

Cost of Equity (CAPM)

Risk-Free Rate (Rf)4.50%

Beta (β)1.38

Market Risk Premium4.50%

*Using current implied premium (4.5% per Damodaran 2026), not historical (6.5%)

Cost of Equity (Re)10.70%

Cost of Debt

Pre-tax Cost of Debt1.67%

Tax Rate30.00%

After-tax Cost of Debt1.17%

Equity Weight (E/V)81.79%

Debt Weight (D/V)18.21%

WACC Calculation

WACC = (E/V × Re) + (D/V × Rd × (1-Tc))

WACC = (81.79% × 10.70%) + (18.21% × 1.17%)

= 8.96%

10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)

Year	Year 1	Year 3	Year 5	Year 7	Year 10
Revenue	$53.9B	$61.8B	$77.5B	$83.4B	$93.1B
EBIT	$3.2B	$3.7B	$7.6B	$12.7B	$18.6B
Tax	$968M	$1.1B	$2.3B	$3.8B	$5.6B
NOPAT	$2.3B	$2.6B	$5.3B	$8.9B	$13.0B
+ Depreciation	$11.7B	$13.5B	$16.9B	$18.1B	$20.3B
- Capex	$22.4B	$20.8B	$19.9B	$14.9B	$5.6B
- Δ NWC	$203M	$760M	$539M	$580M	$648M
Free Cash Flow	-$8.6B	-$5.5B	$1.7B	$11.6B	$27.1B
Discount Factor	0.918	0.773	0.651	0.548	0.424
Present Value	-$7.9B	-$4.3B	$1.1B	$6.4B	$11.5B

FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital

Terminal Value Calculation

Perpetuity Growth Method

Year 10 FCF$27.1B

Terminal Growth Rate3.75%

WACC8.96%

TV = FCF₁₀ × (1+g) / (WACC-g)

Terminal Value$539.1B

PV of Terminal Value$228.5B

Exit Multiple Method

Year 10 EBITDA$38.9B

Exit Multiple (EV/EBITDA)28.0x

TV = EBITDA₁₀ × Exit Multiple

Terminal Value$1.1T

PV of Terminal Value$461.8B

Valuation Summary

Perpetuity Growth Method

PV of Projected FCFs$19.2B

PV of Terminal Value$228.5B

Enterprise Value$247.7B

(-) Net Debt$32.3B

Equity Value$215.4B

Shares Outstanding4.9B

Price per Share$44.35

Exit Multiple Method

PV of Projected FCFs$19.2B

PV of Terminal Value$461.8B

Enterprise Value$481.0B

(-) Net Debt$32.3B

Equity Value$448.7B

Shares Outstanding4.9B

Price per Share$92.39

Pure Model Fair Value

$68.37

Average of perpetuity growth and exit multiple methods (before market calibration)

Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share

WACC ↓ / Growth →	2.75%	3.25%	3.75%	4.25%	4.75%
6.96%	$90.47	$95.34	$101.72	$110.45	$123.14
7.96%	$75.58	$78.43	$81.96	$86.43	$92.30
8.96%	$64.39	$66.21	$68.37	$70.99	$74.24
9.96%	$55.52	$56.75	$58.17	$59.84	$61.84
10.96%	$48.24	$49.10	$50.09	$51.22	$52.53

How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Scenario Analysis

Bear Case

$46.68

8.3% vs current

• -25% vs analyst consensus
• Terminal growth: 3.3%
• Beta: 1.72

Base Case

$68.37

58.6% vs current

• Analyst consensus
• Terminal growth: 3.8%
• Beta: 1.38

Bull Case

$94.80

120.0% vs current

• +25% vs analyst consensus
• Terminal growth: 4.3%
• Beta: 1.17

Key Assumptions & Drivers• Technology Sector

Growth Assumptions (Select Years)

Year 1 Revenue Growth2.00%

Year 3 Revenue Growth6.82%

Year 5 Revenue Growth3.75%

Year 7 Revenue Growth3.75%

Year 10 Revenue Growth3.75%

Terminal Growth Rate3.75%

Margin & Efficiency

Current EBIT Margin5.98%

Terminal EBIT Margin25.00%

Tax Rate30.00%

Historical Capex / Rev41.52%

Terminal Capex / Rev6.00%

NWC / Revenue19.25%

Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.

Institutional-Grade Methodology

Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta

Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 28x EV/EBITDA (Technology sector)

This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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