10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)
| Year | Year 1 | Year 3 | Year 5 | Year 7 | Year 10 |
|---|
| Revenue | $24.7B | $26.5B | $28.0B | $29.6B | $32.1B |
| EBIT | $583M | $626M | $1.4B | $2.5B | $3.7B |
| Tax | $93M | $99M | $217M | $400M | $595M |
| NOPAT | $491M | $527M | $1.2B | $2.1B | $3.2B |
| + Depreciation | $1.5B | $1.7B | $1.8B | $1.9B | $2.0B |
| - Capex | $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.2B | $1.3B | $1.4B |
| - Δ NWC | -$21M | $94M | $87M | $92M | $100M |
| Free Cash Flow | $989M | $945M | $1.6B | $2.6B | $3.7B |
| Discount Factor | 0.930 | 0.805 | 0.696 | 0.602 | 0.484 |
| Present Value | $920M | $760M | $1.1B | $1.6B | $1.8B |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 1.75% | 2.25% | 2.75% | 3.25% | 3.75% |
|---|
| 5.52% | $114.99 | $132.38 | $156.05 | $190.15 | $211.59 |
| 6.52% | $84.19 | $93.86 | $106.10 | $122.07 | $143.82 |
| 7.52% | $64.70 | $70.66 | $77.86 | $86.75 | $98.00 |
| 8.52% | $51.45 | $55.38 | $59.98 | $65.46 | $72.09 |
| 9.52% | $41.99 | $44.71 | $47.82 | $51.44 | $55.68 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers• Consumer Cyclical Sector
Growth Assumptions (Select Years)
Year 1 Revenue Growth-0.72%
Year 3 Revenue Growth3.15%
Year 5 Revenue Growth2.75%
Year 7 Revenue Growth2.75%
Year 10 Revenue Growth2.75%
Terminal Growth Rate2.75%
Margin & Efficiency
EBIT Margin2.36%
Tax Rate15.88%
Capex / Revenue4.34%
NWC / Revenue11.62%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 18x EV/EBITDA (S&P 500: 22x P/E)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.