5-Year Free Cash Flow Projections
| Year | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|
| Revenue | $13.3B | $14.0B | $14.5B | $14.9B | $15.4B |
| EBIT | $845M | $889M | $917M | $945M | $974M |
| Tax | $335M | $353M | $364M | $375M | $386M |
| NOPAT | $510M | $536M | $553M | $570M | $587M |
| + Depreciation | $259M | $272M | $281M | $290M | $298M |
| - Capex | $124M | $130M | $134M | $139M | $143M |
| - Δ NWC | $130M | $70M | $44M | $45M | $45M |
| Free Cash Flow | $514M | $609M | $656M | $677M | $699M |
| Discount Factor | 0.933 | 0.870 | 0.811 | 0.757 | 0.706 |
| Present Value | $480M | $530M | $532M | $512M | $493M |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% | 4.00% |
|---|
| 5.22% | $151.97 | $179.13 | $218.53 | $239.27 | $234.98 |
| 6.22% | $113.01 | $127.59 | $146.70 | $172.85 | $210.79 |
| 7.22% | $89.21 | $98.15 | $109.22 | $123.26 | $141.67 |
| 8.22% | $73.24 | $79.21 | $86.32 | $94.94 | $105.60 |
| 9.22% | $61.84 | $66.06 | $70.95 | $76.70 | $83.56 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers
Growth Assumptions
Year 1 Revenue Growth10.85%
Year 2 Revenue Growth5.24%
Year 3 Revenue Growth3.17%
Year 4 Revenue Growth3.08%
Year 5 Revenue Growth3.00%
Terminal Growth Rate3.00%
Margin & Efficiency
EBIT Margin6.33%
Tax Rate39.66%
Capex / Revenue0.93%
NWC / Revenue9.97%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 18x EV/EBITDA (S&P 500: 22x P/E)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.