10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)
| Year | Year 1 | Year 3 | Year 5 | Year 7 | Year 10 |
|---|
| Revenue | $17.8B | $20.1B | $22.7B | $24.4B | $26.3B |
| EBIT | $5.1B | $5.8B | $6.5B | $7.0B | $7.6B |
| Tax | $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.4B | $1.5B | $1.6B |
| NOPAT | $4.0B | $4.6B | $5.2B | $5.6B | $6.0B |
| + Depreciation | $2.4B | $2.7B | $3.1B | $3.3B | $3.6B |
| - Capex | $2.3B | $2.3B | $2.2B | $1.9B | $1.4B |
| - Δ NWC | $83M | $116M | $97M | $82M | $52M |
| Free Cash Flow | $4.1B | $4.9B | $6.0B | $6.8B | $8.0B |
| Discount Factor | 0.940 | 0.829 | 0.732 | 0.646 | 0.536 |
| Present Value | $3.8B | $4.1B | $4.4B | $4.4B | $4.3B |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 1.00% | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% |
|---|
| 4.43% | $63.73 | $69.80 | $78.35 | $88.68 | $84.56 |
| 5.43% | $50.37 | $53.58 | $57.73 | $63.30 | $71.15 |
| 6.43% | $41.23 | $43.16 | $45.51 | $48.46 | $52.27 |
| 7.43% | $34.44 | $35.68 | $37.15 | $38.92 | $41.08 |
| 8.43% | $29.12 | $29.96 | $30.94 | $32.08 | $33.43 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers✓ Using Analyst Consensus Estimates• Energy Sector
Growth Assumptions (Select Years)
Year 1 Revenue Growth4.90%
Year 3 Revenue Growth6.10%
Year 5 Revenue Growth4.45%
Year 7 Revenue Growth3.47%
Year 10 Revenue Growth2.00%
Terminal Growth Rate2.00%
Margin & Efficiency
Current EBIT Margin28.72%
Tax Rate20.84%
Historical Capex / Rev12.86%
Terminal Capex / Rev5.50%
NWC / Revenue10.00%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 14x EV/EBITDA (Energy sector)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.