10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)
| Year | Year 1 | Year 3 | Year 5 | Year 7 | Year 10 |
|---|
| Revenue | $15.2B | $17.5B | $19.4B | $21.1B | $23.2B |
| EBIT | $1.3B | $1.6B | $1.9B | $2.3B | $2.8B |
| Tax | $359M | $452M | $547M | $642M | $788M |
| NOPAT | $912M | $1.1B | $1.4B | $1.6B | $2.0B |
| + Depreciation | $334M | $382M | $425M | $461M | $509M |
| - Capex | $288M | $330M | $367M | $398M | $439M |
| - Δ NWC | $135M | $177M | $135M | $126M | $105M |
| Free Cash Flow | $823M | $1.0B | $1.3B | $1.6B | $2.0B |
| Discount Factor | 0.944 | 0.842 | 0.752 | 0.670 | 0.565 |
| Present Value | $777M | $861M | $985M | $1.0B | $1.1B |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% | 4.00% |
|---|
| 3.88% | $273.22 | $262.40 | $252.07 | $242.23 | $232.84 |
| 4.88% | $180.34 | $215.75 | $252.07 | $242.23 | $232.84 |
| 5.88% | $127.08 | $144.07 | $166.96 | $199.47 | $232.84 |
| 6.88% | $96.51 | $106.09 | $118.14 | $133.75 | $154.78 |
| 7.88% | $76.98 | $82.93 | $90.10 | $98.91 | $109.99 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers• Consumer Cyclical Sector
Growth Assumptions (Select Years)
Year 1 Revenue Growth6.08%
Year 3 Revenue Growth7.01%
Year 5 Revenue Growth4.71%
Year 7 Revenue Growth4.03%
Year 10 Revenue Growth3.00%
Terminal Growth Rate3.00%
Margin & Efficiency
Current EBIT Margin8.35%
Terminal EBIT Margin12.00%
Tax Rate28.26%
Historical Capex / Rev1.89%
NWC / Revenue15.51%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 18x EV/EBITDA (S&P 500: 22x P/E)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.