10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)
| Year | Year 1 | Year 3 | Year 5 | Year 7 | Year 10 |
|---|
| Revenue | $13.9B | $14.5B | $15.3B | $16.2B | $17.7B |
| EBIT | $1.4B | $1.5B | $1.6B | $1.8B | $2.0B |
| Tax | $355M | $371M | $406M | $454M | $519M |
| NOPAT | $1.0B | $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.3B | $1.5B |
| + Depreciation | $337M | $353M | $372M | $395M | $431M |
| - Capex | $279M | $292M | $308M | $327M | $357M |
| - Δ NWC | -$5M | $50M | $67M | $71M | $77M |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.1B | $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.3B | $1.5B |
| Discount Factor | 0.941 | 0.834 | 0.739 | 0.655 | 0.546 |
| Present Value | $1.0B | $915M | $877M | $869M | $827M |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% | 4.00% |
|---|
| 4.24% | $172.88 | $179.53 | $171.55 | $163.95 | $156.70 |
| 5.24% | $132.05 | $142.58 | $157.81 | $163.95 | $156.70 |
| 6.24% | $107.95 | $113.37 | $120.45 | $130.12 | $144.11 |
| 7.24% | $91.32 | $94.50 | $98.42 | $103.40 | $109.91 |
| 8.24% | $78.77 | $80.80 | $83.21 | $86.14 | $89.75 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers• Consumer Cyclical Sector
Growth Assumptions (Select Years)
Year 1 Revenue Growth-0.23%
Year 3 Revenue Growth2.35%
Year 5 Revenue Growth3.00%
Year 7 Revenue Growth3.00%
Year 10 Revenue Growth3.00%
Terminal Growth Rate3.00%
Margin & Efficiency
Current EBIT Margin10.04%
Terminal EBIT Margin12.00%
Tax Rate25.45%
Historical Capex / Rev2.01%
NWC / Revenue14.94%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 20x EV/EBITDA (Consumer Cyclical sector)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.