10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)
| Year | Year 1 | Year 3 | Year 5 | Year 7 | Year 10 |
|---|
| Revenue | $29.5B | $30.6B | $32.2B | $33.7B | $36.0B |
| EBIT | $2.7B | $2.8B | $3.6B | $4.2B | $5.0B |
| Tax | $297M | $309M | $401M | $470M | $549M |
| NOPAT | $2.4B | $2.5B | $3.2B | $3.8B | $4.4B |
| + Depreciation | $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.2B | $1.3B | $1.4B |
| - Capex | $1.4B | $1.5B | $1.5B | $1.6B | $1.7B |
| - Δ NWC | -$97M | $135M | $98M | $102M | $109M |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.2B | $2.0B | $2.8B | $3.3B | $3.9B |
| Discount Factor | 0.945 | 0.844 | 0.754 | 0.673 | 0.568 |
| Present Value | $2.1B | $1.7B | $2.1B | $2.2B | $2.2B |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 1.25% | 1.75% | 2.25% | 2.75% | 3.25% |
|---|
| 3.81% | $367.56 | $450.26 | $447.13 | $429.80 | $413.28 |
| 4.81% | $252.36 | $289.08 | $340.16 | $416.02 | $413.28 |
| 5.81% | $189.37 | $209.22 | $234.63 | $268.35 | $315.24 |
| 6.81% | $150.29 | $162.29 | $176.92 | $195.15 | $218.50 |
| 7.81% | $124.06 | $131.87 | $141.08 | $152.12 | $165.57 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers• Basic Materials Sector
Growth Assumptions (Select Years)
Year 1 Revenue Growth-2.33%
Year 3 Revenue Growth3.31%
Year 5 Revenue Growth2.25%
Year 7 Revenue Growth2.25%
Year 10 Revenue Growth2.25%
Terminal Growth Rate2.25%
Margin & Efficiency
EBIT Margin9.09%
Tax Rate11.10%
Capex / Revenue4.79%
NWC / Revenue13.77%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 18x EV/EBITDA (S&P 500: 22x P/E)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.