Live Nation Entertainment, Inc.LYVNYSE

Overview Intelligence Charts News Fundamentals Key Metrics TTM Financials Earnings Growth Rating Analysts Institutional Peers Historical

DCF Valuation

DCF Valuation Summary

Strong Buy

Fair Value: $650.26 per share(market-calibrated)

+317.2%

Upside to Fair Value

Current

$155.85

Pure Model

$686.70

Fair Value

$650.26

Bull Case

$995.71

Bear Case

$463.17

Market Reality Check

Model Terminal Growth

3.00%

Market-Implied Growth

0.50%

Calibrated Growth

2.13%

Fair value uses 65% model / 35% market-implied terminal growth. Pure model: $686.70.

What's Driving This Ratingfor LYV

✓

CapEx already efficient

CapEx at 2.16% of revenue is already at or below sector maintenance level. No normalization needed — cash conversion is already strong.

↑

Margin expansion modeled

Current EBIT margin is 14.86% — below the sector mature average of 22.00%. Model expands margins as the business scales and operating leverage kicks in. Year 10 EBIT reaches $13.9B (19.66% margin).

→

Moderate revenue growth

Analyst consensus projects 9.11% revenue growth, fading to 3.00% by Year 10. Revenue reaches $70.6B (vs $25.2B today).

↔

Perpetuity and exit methods disagree

Perpetuity growth gives $555.93/share (22.4x terminal FCF) while exit multiple gives $817.47/share (35.8x terminal FCF). The 22x EV/EBITDA exit reflects current market multiples, while the perpetuity method with 3.00% growth is more conservative. The base case averages both methods.

🎯

Market pricing in lower growth than model

The market implies only 0.50% perpetual growth — 250bps below the model's 3.00%. This suggests the market sees headwinds or risks not in the model.

✓

Strong cash flow conversion

Year 10 FCF/EBITDA conversion of 61.51% indicates efficient cash generation. FCF reaches $9.4B by Year 10 (13.35% FCF margin).

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

Cost of Equity (CAPM)

Risk-Free Rate (Rf)4.50%

Beta (β)1.14

Market Risk Premium4.50%

*Using current implied premium (4.5% per Damodaran 2026), not historical (6.5%)

Cost of Equity (Re)9.62%

Cost of Debt

Pre-tax Cost of Debt2.50%

Tax Rate30.00%

After-tax Cost of Debt1.75%

Equity Weight (E/V)74.39%

Debt Weight (D/V)25.61%

WACC Calculation

WACC = (E/V × Re) + (D/V × Rd × (1-Tc))

WACC = (74.39% × 9.62%) + (25.61% × 1.75%)

= 7.60%

10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)

Year	Year 1	Year 3	Year 5	Year 7	Year 10
Revenue	$27.5B	$32.8B	$44.7B	$58.8B	$70.6B
EBIT	$4.1B	$4.9B	$6.6B	$10.2B	$13.9B
Tax	$1.2B	$1.5B	$2.0B	$3.1B	$4.2B
NOPAT	$2.9B	$3.4B	$4.7B	$7.2B	$9.7B
+ Depreciation	$561M	$669M	$913M	$1.2B	$1.4B
- Capex	$595M	$709M	$967M	$1.3B	$1.5B
- Δ NWC	$230M	$274M	$734M	$675M	$206M
Free Cash Flow	$2.6B	$3.1B	$3.9B	$6.4B	$9.4B
Discount Factor	0.929	0.803	0.693	0.599	0.481
Present Value	$2.4B	$2.5B	$2.7B	$3.8B	$4.5B

FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital

Terminal Value Calculation

Perpetuity Growth Method

Year 10 FCF$9.4B

Terminal Growth Rate3.00%

WACC7.60%

TV = FCF₁₀ × (1+g) / (WACC-g)

Terminal Value$210.8B

PV of Terminal Value$101.3B

Exit Multiple Method

Year 10 EBITDA$15.3B

Exit Multiple (EV/EBITDA)22.0x

TV = EBITDA₁₀ × Exit Multiple

Terminal Value$336.9B

PV of Terminal Value$161.9B

Valuation Summary

Perpetuity Growth Method

PV of Projected FCFs$33.0B

PV of Terminal Value$101.3B

Enterprise Value$134.2B

(-) Net Debt$5.3B

Equity Value$128.9B

Shares Outstanding232M

Price per Share$555.93

Exit Multiple Method

PV of Projected FCFs$33.0B

PV of Terminal Value$161.9B

Enterprise Value$194.9B

(-) Net Debt$5.3B

Equity Value$189.5B

Shares Outstanding232M

Price per Share$817.47

Pure Model Fair Value

$686.70

Average of perpetuity growth and exit multiple methods (before market calibration)

Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share

WACC ↓ / Growth →	2.00%	2.50%	3.00%	3.50%	4.00%
5.60%	$891.44	$947.02	$1,023.93	$1,137.41	$1,128.89
6.60%	$748.45	$778.68	$817.30	$868.36	$939.02
7.60%	$645.99	$664.35	$686.70	$714.49	$750.00
8.60%	$567.02	$579.01	$593.14	$610.04	$630.60
9.60%	$503.32	$511.56	$521.04	$532.08	$545.09

How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Scenario Analysis

Bear Case

$463.17

197.2% vs current

• -25% vs analyst consensus
• Terminal growth: 2.5%
• Beta: 1.42

Base Case

$686.70

340.6% vs current

• Analyst consensus
• Terminal growth: 3.0%
• Beta: 1.14

Bull Case

$995.71

538.9% vs current

• +25% vs analyst consensus
• Terminal growth: 3.5%
• Beta: 0.97

Key Assumptions & Drivers✓ Using Analyst Consensus Estimates• Communication Services Sector

Growth Assumptions (Select Years)

Year 1 Revenue Growth9.11%

Year 3 Revenue Growth9.13%

Year 5 Revenue Growth19.65%

Year 7 Revenue Growth12.99%

Year 10 Revenue Growth3.00%

Terminal Growth Rate3.00%

Margin & Efficiency

Current EBIT Margin14.86%

Terminal EBIT Margin22.00%

Tax Rate30.00%

Historical Capex / Rev2.16%

NWC / Revenue10.00%

Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.

Institutional-Grade Methodology

Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta

Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 22x EV/EBITDA (Communication Services sector)

This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Explore More

S&P 500 Screener

Filter and sort all 500 stocks

Market Movers

Today's biggest gainers and losers

Market Heatmap

Visual sector performance