5-Year Free Cash Flow Projections
| Year | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|
| Revenue | $75.6B | $96.1B | $101.2B | $72.2B | $78.4B |
| EBIT | $8.0B | $10.2B | $10.7B | $7.7B | $8.3B |
| Tax | $933M | $1.2B | $1.2B | $891M | $968M |
| NOPAT | $7.1B | $9.0B | $9.5B | $6.8B | $7.4B |
| + Depreciation | $15.1B | $19.1B | $20.1B | $14.4B | $15.6B |
| - Capex | $21.9B | $27.8B | $29.2B | $20.9B | $22.7B |
| - Δ NWC | $19.3B | $10.3B | $2.6B | -$14.6B | $3.1B |
| Free Cash Flow | -$19.0B | -$9.9B | -$2.2B | $14.9B | -$2.8B |
| Discount Factor | 0.901 | 0.812 | 0.732 | 0.659 | 0.594 |
| Present Value | -$17.1B | -$8.1B | -$1.6B | $9.8B | -$1.7B |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% | 4.00% |
|---|
| 8.98% | $-45.89 | $-47.88 | $-50.21 | $-52.96 | $-56.26 |
| 9.98% | $-41.92 | $-43.38 | $-45.04 | $-46.96 | $-49.20 |
| 10.98% | $-38.88 | $-39.98 | $-41.22 | $-42.62 | $-44.23 |
| 11.98% | $-36.49 | $-37.34 | $-38.29 | $-39.35 | $-40.55 |
| 12.98% | $-34.56 | $-35.24 | $-35.99 | $-36.81 | $-37.73 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers✓ Using Analyst Consensus Estimates
Growth Assumptions
Year 1 Revenue Growth102.28%
Year 2 Revenue Growth27.06%
Year 3 Revenue Growth5.33%
Year 4 Revenue Growth-28.67%
Year 5 Revenue Growth8.62%
Terminal Growth Rate3.00%
Margin & Efficiency
EBIT Margin10.61%
Tax Rate11.63%
Capex / Revenue28.90%
NWC / Revenue50.43%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 18x EV/EBITDA (S&P 500: 22x P/E)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.