10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)
| Year | Year 1 | Year 3 | Year 5 | Year 7 | Year 10 |
|---|
| Revenue | $10.7B | $12.3B | $13.5B | $14.3B | $15.7B |
| EBIT | -$2.3B | -$2.7B | -$2.0B | -$761M | $491M |
| Tax | -$491M | -$562M | -$427M | -$160M | $103M |
| NOPAT | -$1.8B | -$2.1B | -$1.6B | -$602M | $388M |
| + Depreciation | $1.0B | $1.1B | $1.3B | $1.3B | $1.5B |
| - Capex | $2.1B | $2.0B | $1.7B | $1.3B | $627M |
| - Δ NWC | $89M | $87M | $39M | $42M | $46M |
| Free Cash Flow | -$3.1B | -$3.1B | -$2.1B | -$636M | $1.2B |
| Discount Factor | 0.911 | 0.757 | 0.628 | 0.522 | 0.395 |
| Present Value | -$2.8B | -$2.3B | -$1.3B | -$332M | $465M |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% | 4.00% |
|---|
| 7.74% | $-26.62 | $-25.52 | $-24.19 | $-22.55 | $-20.46 |
| 8.74% | $-30.24 | $-29.51 | $-28.66 | $-27.65 | $-26.43 |
| 9.74% | $-33.00 | $-32.50 | $-31.92 | $-31.26 | $-30.47 |
| 10.74% | $-35.17 | $-34.81 | $-34.41 | $-33.95 | $-33.42 |
| 11.74% | $-36.92 | $-36.65 | $-36.36 | $-36.02 | $-35.65 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers• Consumer Cyclical Sector
Growth Assumptions (Select Years)
Year 1 Revenue Growth9.03%
Year 3 Revenue Growth7.66%
Year 5 Revenue Growth3.00%
Year 7 Revenue Growth3.00%
Year 10 Revenue Growth3.00%
Terminal Growth Rate3.00%
Margin & Efficiency
Current EBIT Margin-21.81%
Terminal EBIT Margin15.88%
Tax Rate21.00%
Historical Capex / Rev19.86%
Terminal Capex / Rev4.00%
NWC / Revenue10.00%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 20x EV/EBITDA (Consumer Cyclical sector)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.