10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)
| Year | Year 1 | Year 3 | Year 5 | Year 7 | Year 10 |
|---|
| Revenue | $10.6B | $12.0B | $12.9B | $13.7B | $14.9B |
| EBIT | -$1.6B | -$1.8B | -$1.3B | -$277M | $720M |
| Tax | -$82M | -$92M | -$64M | -$14M | $36M |
| NOPAT | -$1.6B | -$1.7B | -$1.2B | -$263M | $684M |
| + Depreciation | $992M | $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.3B | $1.4B |
| - Capex | $2.1B | $2.0B | $1.7B | $1.3B | $598M |
| - Δ NWC | $80M | $67M | $38M | $40M | $44M |
| Free Cash Flow | -$2.8B | -$2.7B | -$1.7B | -$296M | $1.4B |
| Discount Factor | 0.904 | 0.739 | 0.604 | 0.494 | 0.365 |
| Present Value | -$2.5B | -$2.0B | -$1.0B | -$146M | $525M |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% | 4.00% |
|---|
| 8.60% | $-21.18 | $-20.24 | $-19.14 | $-17.83 | $-16.22 |
| 9.60% | $-24.79 | $-24.15 | $-23.41 | $-22.55 | $-21.54 |
| 10.60% | $-27.65 | $-27.20 | $-26.68 | $-26.09 | $-25.41 |
| 11.60% | $-29.98 | $-29.64 | $-29.26 | $-28.84 | $-28.36 |
| 12.60% | $-31.89 | $-31.63 | $-31.35 | $-31.04 | $-30.70 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers• Consumer Cyclical Sector
Growth Assumptions (Select Years)
Year 1 Revenue Growth8.17%
Year 3 Revenue Growth5.90%
Year 5 Revenue Growth3.00%
Year 7 Revenue Growth3.00%
Year 10 Revenue Growth3.00%
Terminal Growth Rate3.00%
Margin & Efficiency
Current EBIT Margin-15.39%
Terminal EBIT Margin16.21%
Tax Rate5.00%
Historical Capex / Rev19.86%
Terminal Capex / Rev4.00%
NWC / Revenue10.00%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 20x EV/EBITDA (Consumer Cyclical sector)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.