10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)
| Year | Year 1 | Year 3 | Year 5 | Year 7 | Year 10 |
|---|
| Revenue | $27.4B | $28.5B | $31.5B | $36.9B | $41.5B |
| EBIT | $3.9B | $4.1B | $4.5B | $5.3B | $5.9B |
| Tax | $1.2B | $1.2B | $1.3B | $1.6B | $1.8B |
| NOPAT | $2.7B | $2.8B | $3.1B | $3.7B | $4.1B |
| + Depreciation | $2.9B | $3.0B | $3.3B | $3.9B | $4.4B |
| - Capex | $3.2B | $2.8B | $2.6B | $2.4B | $1.7B |
| - Δ NWC | $303M | $21M | $177M | $146M | $52M |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.1B | $3.0B | $3.7B | $5.0B | $6.8B |
| Discount Factor | 0.940 | 0.831 | 0.734 | 0.649 | 0.539 |
| Present Value | $2.0B | $2.5B | $2.7B | $3.3B | $3.7B |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 1.25% | 1.75% | 2.25% | 2.75% | 3.25% |
|---|
| 4.38% | $143.62 | $156.37 | $175.10 | $176.15 | $169.24 |
| 5.38% | $117.85 | $124.27 | $132.74 | $144.44 | $161.63 |
| 6.38% | $100.83 | $104.55 | $109.18 | $115.07 | $122.86 |
| 7.38% | $88.44 | $90.80 | $93.61 | $97.04 | $101.29 |
| 8.38% | $78.87 | $80.45 | $82.29 | $84.46 | $87.05 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers✓ Using Analyst Consensus Estimates• Basic Materials Sector
Growth Assumptions (Select Years)
Year 1 Revenue Growth23.99%
Year 3 Revenue Growth1.30%
Year 5 Revenue Growth10.94%
Year 7 Revenue Growth7.46%
Year 10 Revenue Growth2.25%
Terminal Growth Rate2.25%
Margin & Efficiency
Current EBIT Margin14.24%
Terminal EBIT Margin46.85%
Tax Rate30.00%
Historical Capex / Rev11.66%
Terminal Capex / Rev4.00%
NWC / Revenue5.71%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 14x EV/EBITDA (Basic Materials sector)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.