News CorporationNWSANASDAQ
Loading

DCF Valuation

DCF Valuation Summary
Buy
Base Case: $27.06 per share
+19.1%
Upside to Target
Bear Case
$23.33
Base Case
$27.06
Current
$22.72
Bull Case
$31.55
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)
Cost of Equity (CAPM)
Risk-Free Rate (Rf)4.50%
Beta (β)0.97
Market Risk Premium4.50%
*Using current implied premium (4.5% per Damodaran 2026), not historical (6.5%)
Cost of Equity (Re)8.86%
Cost of Debt
Pre-tax Cost of Debt1.91%
Tax Rate29.79%
After-tax Cost of Debt1.34%
Equity Weight (E/V)81.44%
Debt Weight (D/V)18.56%
WACC Calculation
WACC = (E/V × Re) + (D/V × Rd × (1-Tc))
WACC = (81.44% × 8.86%) + (18.56% × 1.34%)
= 7.46%
10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)
YearYear 1Year 3Year 5Year 7Year 10
Revenue$8.8B$9.5B$9.9B$10.3B$11.1B
EBIT$766M$826M$863M$896M$969M
Tax$228M$246M$257M$267M$289M
NOPAT$538M$580M$606M$629M$681M
+ Depreciation$681M$734M$767M$796M$862M
- Capex$476M$514M$537M$557M$603M
- Δ NWC$34M$37M$13M$20M$32M
Free Cash Flow$709M$763M$823M$848M$907M
Discount Factor0.9310.8060.6980.6040.487
Present Value$660M$615M$574M$512M$442M
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Terminal Value Calculation
Perpetuity Growth Method
Year 10 FCF$907M
Terminal Growth Rate1.73%
WACC7.46%
TV = FCF₁₀ × (1+g) / (WACC-g)
Terminal Value$16.1B
PV of Terminal Value$7.8B
Exit Multiple Method
Year 10 EBITDA$1.8B
Exit Multiple (EV/EBITDA)14.5x
TV = EBITDA₁₀ × Exit Multiple
Terminal Value$26.5B
PV of Terminal Value$12.9B
Valuation Summary
Perpetuity Growth Method
PV of Projected FCFs$5.5B
PV of Terminal Value$7.8B
Enterprise Value$13.4B
(-) Net Debt$537M
Equity Value$12.8B
Shares Outstanding$568M
Price per Share$22.60
Exit Multiple Method
PV of Projected FCFs$5.5B
PV of Terminal Value$12.9B
Enterprise Value$18.4B
(-) Net Debt$537M
Equity Value$17.9B
Shares Outstanding$568M
Price per Share$31.52
Base Case Fair Value
$27.06
Average of perpetuity growth and exit multiple methods
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
WACC ↓ / Growth →1.00%1.50%1.73%2.23%2.73%
5.46%$30.05$32.85$34.38$38.48$44.09
6.46%$24.59$26.27$27.16$29.43$32.30
7.46%$20.96$22.04$22.60$23.99$25.68
8.46%$18.39$19.13$19.51$20.43$21.50
9.46%$16.52$17.04$17.30$17.94$18.67
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Scenario Analysis
Bear Case
$23.33
2.7% vs current
  • -25% vs analyst consensus
  • Terminal growth: 2.0%
  • Beta: 1.21
Base Case
$27.06
19.1% vs current
  • Analyst consensus
  • Terminal growth: 1.7%
  • Beta: 0.97
Bull Case
$31.55
38.9% vs current
  • +25% vs analyst consensus
  • Terminal growth: 2.2%
  • Beta: 0.82
Key Assumptions & Drivers✓ Using Analyst Consensus EstimatesCommunication Services Sector
Growth Assumptions (Select Years)
Year 1 Revenue Growth3.97%
Year 3 Revenue Growth4.07%
Year 5 Revenue Growth1.38%
Year 7 Revenue Growth2.03%
Year 10 Revenue Growth3.00%
Terminal Growth Rate1.73%
Margin & Efficiency
EBIT Margin8.72%
Tax Rate29.79%
Capex / Revenue5.42%
NWC / Revenue10.00%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 18x EV/EBITDA (S&P 500: 22x P/E)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.