10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)
| Year | Year 1 | Year 3 | Year 5 | Year 7 | Year 10 |
|---|
| Revenue | $15.2B | $16.7B | $18.2B | $19.0B | $20.3B |
| EBIT | $2.3B | $2.5B | $2.7B | $2.8B | $3.0B |
| Tax | $562M | $619M | $675M | $705M | $754M |
| NOPAT | $1.7B | $1.9B | $2.0B | $2.1B | $2.3B |
| + Depreciation | $198M | $218M | $238M | $249M | $266M |
| - Capex | $144M | $159M | $173M | $181M | $194M |
| - Δ NWC | $34M | $35M | $18M | $19M | $20M |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.7B | $1.9B | $2.1B | $2.2B | $2.3B |
| Discount Factor | 0.931 | 0.807 | 0.699 | 0.606 | 0.489 |
| Present Value | $1.6B | $1.5B | $1.5B | $1.3B | $1.1B |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 1.25% | 1.75% | 2.25% | 2.75% | 3.25% |
|---|
| 5.42% | $107.09 | $113.12 | $121.06 | $131.96 | $147.89 |
| 6.42% | $89.83 | $93.34 | $97.70 | $103.24 | $110.53 |
| 7.42% | $77.02 | $79.25 | $81.91 | $85.14 | $89.14 |
| 8.42% | $66.94 | $68.44 | $70.19 | $72.24 | $74.69 |
| 9.42% | $58.71 | $59.77 | $60.97 | $62.35 | $63.96 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers• Industrials Sector
Growth Assumptions (Select Years)
Year 1 Revenue Growth5.11%
Year 3 Revenue Growth4.78%
Year 5 Revenue Growth2.25%
Year 7 Revenue Growth2.25%
Year 10 Revenue Growth2.25%
Terminal Growth Rate2.25%
Margin & Efficiency
Current EBIT Margin14.97%
Tax Rate24.77%
Historical Capex / Rev0.95%
NWC / Revenue4.57%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 18x EV/EBITDA (Industrials sector)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.