10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)
| Year | Year 1 | Year 3 | Year 5 | Year 7 | Year 10 |
|---|
| Revenue | $9.6B | $10.5B | $12.4B | $14.1B | $15.5B |
| EBIT | $2.6B | $2.9B | $3.4B | $3.8B | $4.2B |
| Tax | $516M | $565M | $668M | $759M | $837M |
| NOPAT | $2.1B | $2.3B | $2.7B | $3.1B | $3.4B |
| + Depreciation | $1.4B | $1.5B | $1.8B | $2.0B | $2.2B |
| - Capex | $2.8B | $2.5B | $2.3B | $1.9B | $775M |
| - Δ NWC | $6M | $5M | $11M | $9M | $3M |
| Free Cash Flow | $634M | $1.3B | $2.2B | $3.2B | $4.8B |
| Discount Factor | 0.945 | 0.843 | 0.753 | 0.672 | 0.567 |
| Present Value | $599M | $1.1B | $1.6B | $2.2B | $2.7B |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 1.00% | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% |
|---|
| 3.85% | $129.16 | $146.58 | $161.27 | $153.48 | $146.05 |
| 4.85% | $97.09 | $105.38 | $116.58 | $132.55 | $146.05 |
| 5.85% | $76.75 | $81.40 | $87.26 | $94.87 | $105.15 |
| 6.85% | $62.32 | $65.20 | $68.67 | $72.95 | $78.33 |
| 7.85% | $51.36 | $53.26 | $55.49 | $58.14 | $61.33 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers✓ Using Analyst Consensus Estimates• Utilities Sector
Growth Assumptions (Select Years)
Year 1 Revenue Growth5.73%
Year 3 Revenue Growth4.31%
Year 5 Revenue Growth8.59%
Year 7 Revenue Growth5.95%
Year 10 Revenue Growth2.00%
Terminal Growth Rate2.00%
Margin & Efficiency
Current EBIT Margin27.31%
Tax Rate19.77%
Historical Capex / Rev29.54%
Terminal Capex / Rev5.00%
NWC / Revenue1.12%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 16x EV/EBITDA (Utilities sector)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.