QUALCOMM IncorporatedQCOMNASDAQ

Overview Intelligence Charts News Fundamentals DCF Key Metrics TTM Financials Earnings Growth Rating Analysts Institutional Peers Historical

DCF Valuation

DCF Valuation Summary

Strong Buy

Fair Value: $209.02 per share(market-calibrated)

+46.5%

Upside to Fair Value

Current

$142.63

Pure Model

$208.98

Fair Value

$209.02

Bull Case

$255.94

Bear Case

$165.63

Market Reality Check

Model Terminal Growth

3.75%

Market-Implied Growth

3.77%

Calibrated Growth

3.76%

Fair value uses 75% model / 25% market-implied terminal growth. Pure model: $208.98.

What's Driving This Ratingfor QCOM

✓

CapEx already efficient

CapEx at 3.54% of revenue is already at or below sector maintenance level. No normalization needed — cash conversion is already strong.

✓

Premium margins already priced in

EBIT margin of 29.07% is already well above sector average. The model holds this level — there's limited room for margin expansion to drive upside. Valuation depends primarily on revenue growth.

→

Moderate revenue growth

Analyst consensus projects -0.98% revenue growth, fading to 3.75% by Year 10. Revenue reaches $64.9B (vs $44.3B today).

↔

Perpetuity and exit methods disagree

Perpetuity growth gives $142.28/share (18.5x terminal FCF) while exit multiple gives $275.67/share (46.0x terminal FCF). The 28x EV/EBITDA exit reflects current market multiples, while the perpetuity method with 3.75% growth is more conservative. The base case averages both methods.

✓

Model and market roughly agree

Market-implied terminal growth of 3.77% is close to the model's 3.75% (only 2bps apart). The DCF assumptions are well-aligned with how the market is pricing this stock.

✓

Strong cash flow conversion

Year 10 FCF/EBITDA conversion of 60.87% indicates efficient cash generation. FCF reaches $13.0B by Year 10 (20.02% FCF margin).

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

Cost of Equity (CAPM)

Risk-Free Rate (Rf)4.50%

Beta (β)1.24

Market Risk Premium4.50%

*Using current implied premium (4.5% per Damodaran 2026), not historical (6.5%)

Cost of Equity (Re)10.07%

Cost of Debt

Pre-tax Cost of Debt3.79%

Tax Rate30.00%

After-tax Cost of Debt2.65%

Equity Weight (E/V)90.52%

Debt Weight (D/V)9.48%

WACC Calculation

WACC = (E/V × Re) + (D/V × Rd × (1-Tc))

WACC = (90.52% × 10.07%) + (9.48% × 2.65%)

= 9.37%

10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)

Year	Year 1	Year 3	Year 5	Year 7	Year 10
Revenue	$43.8B	$47.1B	$54.0B	$58.2B	$64.9B
EBIT	$12.7B	$13.7B	$15.7B	$16.9B	$18.9B
Tax	$3.8B	$4.1B	$4.7B	$5.1B	$5.7B
NOPAT	$8.9B	$9.6B	$11.0B	$11.8B	$13.2B
+ Depreciation	$1.7B	$1.8B	$2.1B	$2.2B	$2.5B
- Capex	$1.6B	$1.7B	$1.9B	$2.1B	$2.3B
- Δ NWC	-$74M	$490M	$330M	$355M	$396M
Free Cash Flow	$9.1B	$9.2B	$10.8B	$11.6B	$13.0B
Discount Factor	0.914	0.764	0.639	0.534	0.408
Present Value	$8.3B	$7.1B	$6.9B	$6.2B	$5.3B

FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital

Terminal Value Calculation

Perpetuity Growth Method

Year 10 FCF$13.0B

Terminal Growth Rate3.75%

WACC9.37%

TV = FCF₁₀ × (1+g) / (WACC-g)

Terminal Value$240.1B

PV of Terminal Value$98.1B

Exit Multiple Method

Year 10 EBITDA$21.4B

Exit Multiple (EV/EBITDA)28.0x

TV = EBITDA₁₀ × Exit Multiple

Terminal Value$598.1B

PV of Terminal Value$244.3B

Valuation Summary

Perpetuity Growth Method

PV of Projected FCFs$66.4B

PV of Terminal Value$98.1B

Enterprise Value$164.5B

(-) Net Debt$8.5B

Equity Value$155.9B

Shares Outstanding$1.1B

Price per Share$142.28

Exit Multiple Method

PV of Projected FCFs$66.4B

PV of Terminal Value$244.3B

Enterprise Value$310.7B

(-) Net Debt$8.5B

Equity Value$302.1B

Shares Outstanding$1.1B

Price per Share$275.67

Pure Model Fair Value

$208.98

Average of perpetuity growth and exit multiple methods (before market calibration)

Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share

WACC ↓ / Growth →	2.75%	3.25%	3.75%	4.25%	4.75%
7.37%	$182.46	$198.92	$219.92	$247.65	$285.98
8.37%	$149.94	$159.96	$172.13	$187.27	$206.59
9.37%	$128.03	$134.57	$142.28	$151.50	$162.71
10.37%	$112.46	$116.97	$122.15	$128.18	$135.28
11.37%	$100.99	$104.21	$107.85	$112.00	$116.78

How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Scenario Analysis

Bear Case

$165.63

16.1% vs current

• -25% vs analyst consensus
• Terminal growth: 3.3%
• Beta: 1.55

Base Case

$208.98

46.5% vs current

• Analyst consensus
• Terminal growth: 3.8%
• Beta: 1.24

Bull Case

$255.94

79.4% vs current

• +25% vs analyst consensus
• Terminal growth: 4.3%
• Beta: 1.05

Key Assumptions & Drivers• Technology Sector

Growth Assumptions (Select Years)

Year 1 Revenue Growth-0.98%

Year 3 Revenue Growth6.57%

Year 5 Revenue Growth3.75%

Year 7 Revenue Growth3.75%

Year 10 Revenue Growth3.75%

Terminal Growth Rate3.75%

Margin & Efficiency

Current EBIT Margin29.07%

Tax Rate30.00%

Historical Capex / Rev3.54%

NWC / Revenue16.87%

Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.

Institutional-Grade Methodology

Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta

Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 18x EV/EBITDA (S&P 500: 22x P/E)

This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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